No, I don't think President Trump is deliberately trying to tank the stock market. Today, I'll show you why...

58% of Americans own stock directly or indirectly through mutual funds or investment accounts. While 56.6% have access to a 401(k) plan, as of 2020, the last year I could find the data, only 34.6% use them. That’s still over 1 out of 3 Americans.

Simultaneously, we must acknowledge the world’s stock markets are mainly wobbling due to Trump’s tariff policies and their uncertainty. What products from what countries get what tariffs? Right now, this is mostly up in the air. Trump himself isn’t sure.

As The Donald’s April 2nd tariff deadline approaches, nations and markets worldwide are bracing for what he sees as justice for “ripping off the United States.” But instead of preparing, the world looks like it’s panicking—and Asian markets overnight were a mess. Futures are all red here in the U.S. Markets are generally down 1% across the board.

This is a good moment to explain what’s happening and why it matters to you—because it does. The markets are far too interconnected to ignore.

RUSSIA!

Russia’s Vladimir Putin isn’t helping; oil’s up around 1% to $69.60. According to Bloomberg:

President Donald Trump said he was “very angry” at Vladimir Putin and threatened “secondary tariffs” on buyers of his country’s oil if the Russian leader refuses a ceasefire with Ukraine.

In comments reported by NBC News, Trump said he was “pissed off” at Putin for casting doubt on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s legitimacy as a negotiating partner, and threatened curbs on “all oil coming out of Russia.” He later added that he didn’t think the Russian president would “go back on his word.”

While the bluster is impressive, what Trump thinks he will do is beyond me. I wrote years ago that sanctions have never worked, and pipelines run east. Here’s a look at the distribution of seaborne Russian oil since the beginning of the war:

Credit: Bloomberg

Far from missing Europe, Asia has completely taken up the slack, as I predicted they would years ago.

While Russia is important, it’s not the only story. Asia’s stock markets are having a rough time. 

All this doesn’t necessarily mean U.S. markets will follow Asia’s lead. The stock market may catch its breath, Mr. Slammy may show up to pound gold and silver, and the USD might even climb.

The 10-Year Yield and The Dollar

Since this all starts with the Oval Office, let’s examine the macro-level metrics of the 10-year yield and the USD.

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aims to use the 10-year yield rather than the stock market as a benchmark for success. If the administration can reduce consumer borrowing costs, it’ll regard its policies as successful.

The 10-year yield got crushed on Friday (blue circle) and is down another 23.9 basis points overnight to 4.20% as of this writing.

This aligns well with the Trump team’s intention. As lower yields aren’t as attractive to foreign capital, you’d expect these foreign investors not to buy as many dollars as usual. While the dollar was down earlier, it’s slightly up at 104.06. 

Gold and Silver

Despite the dollar’s steadiness, spot gold has surged over the $3,100 mark for the first time. Right now, it’s at $3,114.50, showing no signs of slowing down. That’s about a 1% increase on Friday’s close.

On the other hand, silver is pancake-flat at $34.09. I’ll have more to say about this in tomorrow’s Monthly Asset Class Report. My friend and colleague Adam Sharp, among others, has been writing about why silver will take off once we see a stock market sell-off. I think that’s probable.

Asia’s Stock Markets

Henry Kissinger once said, “To be an enemy of America is dangerous. But to be its friend is fatal.”

South Korea’s KOSPI is down 3.00%; Tokyo’s NIKKEI 225 and Sydney’s All Ordinaries Index are each down about 1.80%; and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is down about 1.31%.

With friends like America, who needs enemies?

All of these markets are down because of Trump’s tariff threats.

Europe’s Stock Markets

It’s not much better in Europe, with Spain, France, and Germany all down roughly 1.725% as of this writing. The UK’s FTSE 100 is down about 1.2%. Of course, the tariff situation has undone Europe.

Interestingly, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian FTSE-MIB Index is up 0.12%, but her stance in defense of Trump is becoming increasingly challenging.

U.S. Stock Markets, Tech Complex, and the VIX

To remind you, just because the rest of the world is feeling pain at the moment doesn’t mean the U.S. markets will necessarily feel pain.

However, NVDA looks like it’ll open a whole $4 down (-3.64%). The issue is that this open would break the recent lows of 107.01, meaning NVDA could quickly descend to 102.82. NVDA’s price action is bearish: it’s below the cloud, the 200-day moving average, and its recent lows. There’s nothing to like about the chart for now.

The Mag 7 stable is down between ½% and 5% in the premarket. The SPX futures are down nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq futures are down 1.5%.

The premarket VIX looks to open up over 11% to 24.06.

Finally, Bitcoin has stunk up the joint since Thursday, trading around $82,000 as of writing this.

Wrap Up

I expect a rough morning in New York, but the markets may catch their breath and stabilize. But now you’re up-to-date on the crucial moves on this side of the planet over the weekend because of the President’s policies (and lack of clarity about them).

I’ll have our Monthly Asset Class Report, in all its glory, for you tomorrow.

Have a great week!