Silver is trading under $51 as I write.

It hasn’t been that low in a long while. In late January, it was trading near $120. If you’ve held since then, more than half your money has evaporated.

Yesterday, the miners had it worse. Some of them fell double digits.

Yesterday’s miner bloodbath. Credit: TradingView

I used to own the Integra Warrants at the top of the list, along with Kinross Gold (KGC) and Avino (ASM). They’re good companies. I like them still. But as I wrote earlier this week, when metal prices fall and costs rise, miners’ margins get flattened.

Listen, the last thing I want to do on a Friday morning is put you in a foul mood. But last night’s Omega Wealth Circle call gave me food for thought, and I think you should hear it.

Two Forces, One Market

Jim Rickards kindly invited me to yesterday’s Omega Wealth Circle roundtable. I was excited to see my dear colleagues Adam Sharp, Matt Badiali, Dan Amoss, and Zach Scheidt. The “Hit Man” Aaron Gentzler emceed the event for us.

After Jim’s informative midterm election analysis, we got into a roundtable, similar to the Whisky Bar we do at live events. At one point, it may have sounded like Zach and I were squaring off. We weren’t. We were describing two different forces that move a market.

If you own anything that’s gone against you, you need to know both.

I was talking about ideology. Zach was talking about sentiment.

Let’s take them one at a time.

The Stopped Clock

Ideology is a belief about how the world must work.

It sounds like this: “We have inflation. Governments will print forever. So silver must go to $210.”

Every link in that chain feels true, and much of it is. Governments do print. The dollar does lose value over time. I’ve written that a hundred times, and I’ll write it a hundred more.

But the conclusion doesn’t follow. At least not on any schedule you can use to pay your bills.

Mind you, I was telling myself those very words for all of 2025. Only a tidal wave of reality’s ice water disabused me of the notion on January 30, 2026. That was the day silver’s negative gamma squeeze took it from over $100 to under $80. My colleagues Enrique Abeyta and Nick Riso warned me it was coming… only days earlier! Oh woe was me!

To my credit, I changed my tune within a week. I try to avoid hyperbole, but I was genuinely heartbroken when I told you to sell your miners… and sold my own. Not only did I sell late and at a diminished profit, but the capitulation also forced me to change my beliefs. It hurt, but now I know that bitter elixir was worth swallowing.

Ideology works like a stopped clock, always showing the same time. Twice a day, the market agrees with it, and the believer mistakes this for his own genius. The rest of the day, it costs him money.

What bothers me is that many mining writers I’ve followed on X for years are telling their followers, “Hang on,” or “The turn is coming soon.”

An update of my silver chart from earlier this week. Credit: TradingView

Silver has fallen from $120 to $51, but none of those guys have said, “Maybe I was wrong.” 

These folks aren’t bad people. Some are talking their book. Some run newsletters and can’t bear to reverse a call in public. I know the feeling. It’s human. But it’s damn expensive for anyone who follows them.

I’ve made some bad calls. Admitting it never feels good on the day, but it makes a fresh start easier.

Zach’s Point: Watch the Crowd

Now for Zach’s side, which warrants our attention.

Sentiment isn’t what you believe. It’s what everyone else is doing with their money right now. Ideology tells you what “should” happen. Sentiment tells you what's actually happening.

Zach’s warning was simple. Be mindful of when sentiment turns. Markets that fall this hard don’t fall forever, and thank heavens for that!

At some point, the selling burns itself out, and the crowd swings the other way. We want to be ready when it does. Honestly, I can’t wait to pile back into the miners. But that time isn’t now. We need to be patient.

Zach’s right. Hold your ideology loosely. Watch sentiment closely.

What does a turn look like? We should watch for three things. Bad news has to stop pushing prices lower. The miners need to start rising before the metal does. Finally, the loudest bulls need to give up the ghost.

That last one tells us where we stand. The X bulls are still preaching. Sentiment hasn’t turned yet, and I don’t think it will for a while. In my experience, a bottom comes when the last bull finally sells.

Wrap Up

Combine ideology and sentiment, and you get a simple framework.

Your beliefs can tell you which assets to care about. I still believe in hard money over the long haul. That hasn’t changed.

But beliefs can’t tell you when to own those assets. Only the crowd can. When your belief and the crowd point the same way, you have a trade. When they point in opposite directions, you're in for an expensive lesson.

One last thought. If you sold some silver along the way, or kept your powder dry, you weren’t being disloyal to sound money. You were being a good steward of your own.

Have a lovely weekend!