This weekend, Byron King, ace Rude Contributing Editor, discussed Werewolf on a Slack chat with Brian Maher, Managing Editor of the Daily Reckoning, and me.

Funnily enough, I wrote this piece for the Morning Reckoning last month. 

It’s a subject of paramount importance: We’re becoming more aware of how politicians, the media, and friends manipulate us.

I don’t like writing pieces like this for the MR when it doesn’t reach the Rude Remnant. So here it is, with slight grammatical corrections. To appropriate an old saying, “The first step to solving a problem is admitting that one exists.”

Here’s to you keeping the wolves at bay.

The Wolf at the Door

The game Werewolf (or Mafia, as it’s sometimes called) is a social deduction game in which players are divided into two groups: the informed minority and the uninformed majority. The informed minority, despite being a smaller group, plays a crucial role in the game. This mirrors the importance of informed individuals in shaping our political landscape. 

The Origins of Werewolf

Werewolf is a variant of the Russian game "Mafia," created by Dmitry Davidoff in 1986. Davidoff designed it as a psychological game to explore social behavior, communication, and the breakdown of trust in groups. Initially used in classrooms and psychology studies, the game rapidly gained popularity, spreading to parties and conventions and eventually spawning several iterations, including Werewolf.

The premise of Werewolf is simple: werewolves plague a village and kill one villager each night. By day, the villagers must try to identify and lynch the werewolves hiding among them.

The game's tension arises because a small, informed group (the werewolves) knows who they are and secretly coordinates their actions. Meanwhile, the larger, uninformed majority (the villagers) must try to deduce the werewolves' identities through conversation, accusation, and often baseless suspicions.

The Uninformed Majority

In Werewolf, regular villagers make up the uninformed majority. Their only advantage lies in their numbers, but their disadvantage is their lack of knowledge. They don’t know who the werewolves are, so they must rely on intuition, social cues, and communication to uncover them. Throughout the game, villagers are vulnerable to misinformation, manipulation, and internal division, often turning on each other in desperate attempts to identify the wolves.

This situation mirrors the challenges faced by the general public in political environments. In any society, most voters (the uninformed majority) don’t have access to the same level of information as political insiders, campaign strategists, or policymakers (the informed minority). John Q. Average decides based on limited information, media reports, political rhetoric, and, often, partisan bias. In this environment, misinformation spreads quickly, creating confusion and mistrust.

In recent U.S. politics, we’ve seen how easily political hacks mislead the uninformed majority. From the rapid spread of disinformation on social media platforms to the growing polarization of traditional media, voters are bombarded with conflicting messages – especially from their government!

Just as the villagers in Werewolf must decide who to trust based on incomplete information, U.S. voters must navigate a complex landscape of political messaging, fake news, and emotional appeals to substantiate their opinions.

The Informed Minority

In Werewolf, the werewolves are the informed minority. They know who they are and use that knowledge to deceive the villagers. Their goal is to confuse the villagers, steering suspicion away from themselves. Often, the werewolves will accuse innocent players or try to exploit any existing divisions among the villagers to weaken the majority.

Similarly, in politics, the informed minority consists of politicians, lobbyists, and other insiders who have access to far more information than the general public. They understand the nuances of policies, the intricacies of the political process, and how to mold public opinion. This informed minority uses its knowledge to manipulate the uninformed majority through targeted advertising, misleading statistics, or emotionally charged rhetoric.

This manipulation has become increasingly evident in U.S. politics, particularly with the rise of highly sophisticated political campaigns that use data analytics and behavioral science to pinpoint specific groups of voters. Political operatives craft messages that play on voters’ fears, biases, and insecurities, much like how the werewolves in the game try to manipulate the villagers' paranoia.

One striking example was the 2016 U.S. presidential election, where both the Trump and Clinton campaigns used micro-targeted ads on platforms like Facebook to sway key swing voters. The informed minority, in this case, consisted of political consultants, data scientists, and social media companies who understood the power of these tactics. At the same time, most voters were unaware of how much they were being influenced. Luckily, the Hildebeast lost.

The Erosion of Trust

A key aspect of Werewolf is the gradual erosion of trust within the group. As the werewolves kill more players, the remaining villagers become increasingly suspicious of one another. Werewolf is a game of paranoia, where no one is entirely sure who is telling the truth. It mirrors the decline of trust in American politics, particularly in the era of hyper-partisanship.

According to the Pew Research Center, trust in the U.S. government is near historic lows. This mistrust is directed not only at politicians and institutions but also at fellow citizens. Political polarization has divided American society, with people viewing those with opposing political views as enemies rather than fellow citizens with different opinions. This is the essence of what happens in Werewolf, when players begin to turn on one another, unable to discern truth from deception.

The Role of Media: A Double-Edged Sword

In Werewolf, players rely heavily on communication and persuasion to play the game. Some players may dominate the discussion, while others can’t get a word in edgewise. The same is true in U.S. politics, where media plays a crucial role in shaping the narrative.

The media is the primary source of information for the public, but it’s also a tool for Deep State manipulation. Just as werewolves in the game may spread misinformation to throw the villagers off their trail, Deep State and its media minions use media outlets to promote narratives that serve their interests. It’s particularly evident in the rise of partisan media, where different news outlets use the exact words to report stories, further fueling division among the electorate.

At the same time, the media should act as a guardian, exposing corruption, uncovering hidden truths, and holding the informed minority accountable. (But those days are long past.) In this way, the media in U.S. politics plays a dual role, much like certain players in Werewolf who have special abilities, such as the Seer, who can secretly uncover the identity of the werewolves. However, as in the game, the mainstream media undermines the alternative media's efforts to reveal the truth.

Lessons for U.S. Politics

Werewolf is a game of survival, strategy, and social dynamics. Its lessons extend far beyond the game table and provide valuable insights into the nature of politics, particularly in the United States today.

Misinformation leads to disastrous outcomes both in Werewolf and in politics. The ability of the informed minority to shape the narrative and manipulate the uninformed majority is a powerful tool. Voters must critically evaluate the information they receive, question sources, and seek multiple perspectives.

In Werewolf, trust is the key to success for the villagers. Similarly, in politics, trust in institutions, leaders, and fellow citizens is vital for a functioning republic. The erosion of trust leads to division, making it easier for manipulative actors to gain power.

The uninformed majority in Werewolf only wins by coming together and working as a cohesive unit. Divisions and infighting only weaken them, allowing the werewolves to win. In U.S. politics, overcoming polarization and finding common ground is crucial for addressing the nation’s challenges.

Just as the Seer in Werewolf must use his powers wisely to uncover the truth, voters must remain vigilant, stay informed, and hold political actors accountable. Blind trust or indifference leads to the rise of harmful forces within the political system.

Wrap Up

At its core, Werewolf is a game about power dynamics, trust, and deception. These same dynamics play out in U.S. politics, where an informed minority holds the upper hand over an uninformed majority. However, by recognizing the manipulation strategies, fostering trust, and promoting unity, the majority can reclaim control and ensure that the government benefits all.

Understanding Werewolf's lessons may only solve some of the problems in U.S. politics. Still, it provides a valuable framework for thinking about how the government and its lackeys wield power and how the public must resist manipulation in an unhinged political landscape.