Donald Trump prefers the hammer to the scalpel. Tariffs are his hammer; every diplomatic issue looks like a nail to him. This week, his approach to China, India, and Russia proves it. But here’s the kicker: instead of isolating America’s rivals, his strategy risks pulling them closer together — and pushing U.S. partners away.

This isn’t a screed against tariffs, per se. It’s a rebuke against the indiscriminate way The Donald has been using them.

This may be some news to you. But the world doesn’t need America like it used to. America is more of a “nice to have” right now than a genuine necessity. And that’s because America’s military isn’t what it used to be, especially with America practically announcing it won’t engage Russia because it’s a nuclear power.

But America’s markets are still too lucrative for Eurasia to ignore… for now. But once America’s consumers run out of cash, they’ll be thrown by the wayside, as well. Remember, De Beers didn’t even advertise in the U.S. until Europe’s rich markets were destroyed in World War II.

I worry about these things because The Donald, the “master of the deal,” may be about to engineer one of the most spectacular diplomatic own-goals in modern history.

China: Playing With Matches in a Gasoline Dump

Let’s start with Beijing.

Trump loves to say he’s “tough on China.” And in fairness, he’s not wrong — the tariffs are still sky-high. Imports from China face a 30% duty, while U.S. exports are hit with 10% on the way back. Without a recent truce, those numbers would have leapt into the triple digits, essentially creating a trade embargo.

That would’ve detonated global supply chains, jacking up prices from Walmart shelves to Apple stores. Trump blinked at the last minute and extended the truce. Pragmatism won out over full-blown decoupling.

But here’s the problem: you can’t tariff your way to victory against China. Beijing has a three-decade-long playbook of absorbing pain, redirecting exports, and subsidizing industries until competitors collapse. 

Tariffs may slow them, but they don’t stop them. Meanwhile, American consumers pay more, U.S. farmers suffer retaliation, and multinationals shift their supply chains somewhere else — often to… India.

And that’s where the real story begins.

India: From Golden Child to Tariff Punching Bag

For years, Washington’s grand strategy rested on one simple premise: India would be America’s democratic counterweight to China in Asia. Big market, growing military, shared mistrust of Beijing — perfect partner material.

Trump just torched that playbook.

Instead of deepening ties, he slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods, threatening to double it to 50%. Why? Because India buys Russian oil. The White House line is that every Indian barrel bankrolls Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. 

Sounds tough. Looks decisive. But strategically? It’s idiotic. I wrote about how stupid this was on August 5th.

India isn’t going to stop buying Russian crude just because Washington stamps its feet. Oil is the lifeblood of India’s economy, and Modi’s government is answerable to 1.4 billion people, not to the Beltway blob. Domestic energy security comes before American grand strategy every single time.

By punishing New Delhi, Trump risks shoving India straight into Beijing’s arms. And guess what? The thaw has already begun.

A Sino–Indian Rapprochement?

Two weeks later…

Credit: @narendramodi

For decades, China and India have been bitter rivals. Border clashes, historic mistrust, competing spheres of influence — the list of grievances is long. The U.S. strategy was simple: keep it that way.

But now? Under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, Modi is rebuilding bridges with Xi Jinping. Direct flights are back. Pilgrimage routes are reopened. And — the big one — Modi is planning his first state visit to China in seven years.

That’s not just symbolism. It’s a signal to Washington: keep pushing, and we’ll find other friends.

Imagine the irony: Trump’s tariffs, designed to weaken China, may end up creating the one nightmare scenario U.S. strategists have always feared — an India–China entente.

Russia: The Backdoor Beneficiary

And where does Russia fit into all this?

Trump’s logic is that by punishing India for buying Russian oil, he indirectly squeezes Moscow. Starve the Kremlin of export revenue, starve its war machine. Neat on paper.

But reality is messier. Russia sells oil at a discount; India buys it gladly. Tariffs on Indian goods don’t change that equation. All they do is sour U.S.–India relations. Meanwhile, Moscow gets precisely what it wants: a wedge driven between Washington and New Delhi.

Even worse, as India warms to China, Russia suddenly finds itself sitting pretty in a bigger Eurasian bloc. Beijing, Moscow, and New Delhi, cooperating — however uneasily — under shared U.S. pressure. That’s a geopolitical gift The Donald didn’t intend to deliver.

The EU Angle: Don’t Forget the Bystanders

While all this unfolds in Asia, Europe is fidgeting. The EU has already been on the receiving end of Trump’s “America First” tantrums. Tariffs, threats, protectionist bluster — Brussels has heard it all.

Now, faced with a Washington that looks more like a trade bully than a reliable ally, Europe is quietly looking elsewhere. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde has openly criticized Trump’s trade policies, warning they threaten global supply chains. The EU is now cutting fresh deals with China.

So while Trump alienates India and rattles China, he’s also driving the EU closer to Beijing. Congratulations, Donald: you’ve managed to turn U.S. allies into fence-sitters and rivals into reluctant partners.

The Blowback: America Last?

Let’s connect the dots.

• With China, tariffs remain a blunt instrument that hurts Americans as much as Beijing.
  
  
• With India, sanctions risk breaking a partnership that was supposed to be the cornerstone of U.S. Asia policy.
  
  
• With Russia, the indirect squeeze fails to isolate Moscow and instead accelerates a Eurasian counter-alliance.
  
  
• With the EU, America’s “friends” are drifting away in search of stability.

The result? A fragmented, unpredictable trading system where America isn’t the hub, but just another player. The world order is shifting — and Trump’s heavy-handed tariffs may speed up the very multipolarity Washington has nightmares about.

Why This Could Blow Up in Trump’s Face

Trump loves the optics of strength. He thinks tariffs make him look like the guy who’s finally standing up to decades of weak U.S. policy. But foreign policy isn’t a WWE match. Punching everyone in the face doesn’t make you the champ — it just makes everyone else more eager to team up against you.

And that’s the danger. By trying to weaken China, he may have nudged India closer to it. By trying to hurt Russia, he’s giving Moscow new diplomatic cover. By trying to shake down the EU, he’s forcing Europe to hedge away from Washington.

It’s a lose-lose-lose.

The worst part? Trump could end up presiding over the very outcome America has always feared: a Eurasian bloc anchored by China, Russia, and — if he’s not careful — India. That’s Halford Mackinder’s “world island” nightmare, delivered on a silver platter by a president who thinks tariffs are strategy.

Wrap Up

The blunt truth is this: tariffs aren’t a strategy. They’re tactics. And when tactics are mistaken for strategy, you get blowback.

Trump’s instincts — to project strength, to protect American workers, to put “America First” — resonate with millions of voters. That’s easily understandable.

But foreign policy-wise, the United States risks alienating its partners, empowering its rivals, and accelerating a global realignment it can’t control. If Trump doesn’t adjust course, his second term could be remembered as the moment America pushed the world into someone else’s orbit.

It’s an own-goal for the ages.