This Friday night, I fly to Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, to teach a graduate class from Sunday to Thursday. (Their workweek starts on Sunday, and they have Friday and Saturday off.) I was first there two years ago, and it was much more modern than I’d thought it would be.

And, lo and behold, The Donald is already there, making diplomatic waves. I’d love to meet him, but the chances of that happening are slim. 

That’s because President Donald J. Trump returned to redraw the Middle East map not with guns, but with rhetoric, reason, and riches.

At the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, Trump addressed a packed room of Gulf royals, corporate heavyweights, and global media with a message that was clear, bold, and unmistakably Trumpian:

The Middle East isn’t a war zone. It’s a growth market. The world’s fastest-growing market, in fact. And America’s back in business.

From Chaos to Capital

Trump firmly rebuked the Biden years, calling them “a time of weakness, confusion, and retreat.” He painted the former administration’s Middle East policies—particularly the Afghanistan withdrawal and the frosty stance toward Gulf states—as disastrous.

However, true to form, Trump pivoted quickly to solutions.

In his words, America under his leadership will again embrace its energy partners, foster peace through strength, and unleash private sector capital to transform the region.

“Instead of endless wars,” Trump said, “we will have endless opportunity.”

That line earned applause—and set the tone for what is effectively Trump Doctrine 2.0: transactional diplomacy backed by oil, capital, and realpolitik.

Vision 2030… Meet MAGA 2025

Trump praised Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s gargantuan initiative to diversify the Saudi economy. He likened it to his efforts to reindustrialize America, calling the Crown Prince “a visionary leader with the courage to modernize.”

But more than flattery, Trump offered partnership.

Ever the dealmaker, The Donald spoke of joint ventures between American companies and Gulf sovereign wealth funds, proposed the creation of a bilateral infrastructure fund, and promised a reinvigorated push to facilitate “historic agreements that will reshape the region.”

While he didn’t name specific countries, the implication was clear: the Abraham Accords were just the beginning.

Peace by the Oil Barrel, Not the Barrel of a Gun

At the heart of Trump’s Middle East vision is energy.

Not net-zero fantasy. Not solar-and-wind slogans. Real hydrocarbons.

Trump reaffirmed his commitment to U.S. energy dominance at home and through alliances with key producers abroad.

“Our strength is in oil, gas, and American know-how,” he said, making a veiled jab at Europe’s green collapse and the Biden-era push for ESG compliance.

He hinted at new cross-border investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG), petrochemical production, and nuclear technology. For Trump, energy independence doesn’t mean going it alone—it means teaming up with the producers, not pretenders.

Saudi Arabia, in that context, isn’t a problem. It’s a partner.

On Iran: Maximum Pressure, Maximum Clarity

Trump didn’t avoid the elephant in the room—Iran. And his words left little room for ambiguity.

“Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon,” he declared, reaffirming one of the central tenets of his first-term foreign policy. He called the Iranian regime “the leading state sponsor of terror in the world” and warned that “appeasement only invites aggression.”

Of course, the Iranians see building a nuclear weapon as the safe option, knowing that America dare not attack a nuclear power (see: Russia, North Korea, India).

He mocked the Obama-era nuclear deal as “a giveaway,” and blamed the Biden administration for “begging the mullahs in Tehran” rather than deterring them. Trump emphasized that under his watch, any attack on U.S. forces, allies, or commercial interests would be met with “force, not words.”

In classic Trump style, he even tied Iran’s behavior to economic incentives, suggesting that “with the right leadership, even Iran could become a prosperous nation—but not under the current regime.”

This was a warning to Tehran—and a reassurance to Riyadh.

The New Pax Americana?

Like his first term, Trump’s regional philosophy is a throwback to pre-neocon realism. No moral lectures. No regime change. No endless military interventions. A New American Peace.

But there’s a twist this time: he’s positioning America as the facilitator of peace-by-profit.

“If people are getting rich,” he quipped, “they’re not going to war.”

It may sound simplistic. But his supporters would argue: it’s also true. Just look at places like Northern Ireland.

Trump teased that major announcements could come later this year—possibly new normalization deals or a U.S.-Saudi-Israeli trilateral partnership. His tone was confident, and his intent unmistakable.

He wants to leave office with a stable Middle East—not through treaties and think tanks, but through joint stock companies and construction cranes.

Strategic Takeaways

Let’s be honest: the speech wasn’t about nuance.

It was about headlines, handshakes, and setting the tone for what could be one of the most commercially aggressive foreign policy resets in recent U.S. history.

Here are five things to watch for:

1. Massive capital flows between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, especially infrastructure, AI, and energy. See if they meet expectations or not. Then we’ll know if these deals are real.
   
   
2. An expanded Abraham Accord strategy, possibly bringing Saudi Arabia to the table.
   
   
3. A pivot from defense to development: less military hardware, more AI hardware.
   
   
4. A potential resurrection of the petrodollar marriage, with Trump bringing monetary policy stability back into the equation, perhaps with a gold twist.
   
   
5. A harder line on Iran, including possible new “sticks,” like sanctions, cyber responses, and regional containment policies, but with the “carrot” of reintegration into the Middle East economy.
   
   

Wrap Up

Trump’s Riyadh speech was more than a victory lap. It was a reintroduction.

He’s back in charge and doing it his way: through money, not missiles.

We’re seeing the early blueprint of a Trump-era Middle East built not on American sacrifice but American capital. It’s not so much the return of the empire as a return on empire.

If Trump succeeds in executing this vision, the Middle East might finally escape its cycle of conflict.

Not because politicians willed it so, but because markets demanded it.

Have a great day ahead!