Welcome to the June 2026 edition of the Monthly Asset Class Report. The S&P 500 lost -1.1% for the month, reflecting a slight softening of the chart. Gold was down 11.8%, and Bitcoin was down 18.3%, while the US Dollar was up 2.3%. Trump crushed crude oil 20.4%. Across the 15 assets in this report, 9 are in bullish or cautiously bullish trends, and 6 are in bearish or cautiously bearish territory.

Along with Bitcoin, the rest of the cryptocurrency class was crushed. Silver was colder than a mother-in-law’s kiss.

A quick note: The moving averages we track — 10-week and 40-week, the weekly equivalents of the familiar 50-day and 200-day — are the primary trend filters in this report. When the price is above both, the trend is with you. When it's below both, it isn't. Everything else is context, not signal.

We cover fifteen assets across eight categories: US equities, rates, the dollar, bonds, real estate, energy, metals, and crypto. Each gets a chart, a stats table, and a short commentary. At the end, the summary returns tables rank everything by month-to-date performance.

Let’s hit the charts.

S&P 500

Not a great month, but not a catastrophic one, either. With the U.S. money supply (M2) hitting a new record of $23.1 trillion in May, I wouldn’t bet on too big a sell-off… yet. We’re still targeting 10,425, a 39% upside, though I doubt we’ll get there this cycle. However, my colleague Alan Knuckman called 8,000 the other day.

Nasdaq Composite

While the Mag 7 is getting hit, the semis continue to rally. The tide may be turning, or this could merely be a change in leadership and the beginning of a new step up. Still targeting 43,405, though it’s a very slim chance of getting there. 

Russell 2000

Small caps have performed exceedingly well. This chart looks better than either of its bigger brothers. We’re targeting 4,082, a 35% upside. Again, it may be a fanciful target.

US 10-Year Yield

The Donald is caught between a rock and a hard place with rates. New Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh looks to be a bit more hawkish than Trump anticipated. Although we saw a drop in the 10-year last week, the long-term trend is up, and the dollar may follow. That would crush the US government's finances. A drop to 4.05%, which we target, is just what The Donald would want.

US Dollar (DXY)

A dollar rally is the last thing Donald Trump wants to see because it'll crush his trade policies. So expect more pressure on Kevin Warsh to drop rates. Also expect Warsh to push back on Trump, so the Fed maintains the illusion that it's independent. The dollar index target is 109.75, an absolute nightmare for the administration.

TLT (20Y Bond)

The TLT looks like it's in bullish territory now, but I think this is temporary. I can't think of a reason why anyone would want to own bonds long-term in this inflationary environment.

LQD (IG Corp)

Every time LQD approaches 110, it gets rejected. We’re neutral on this.

HYG (High Yield)

Technically bullish, but this chart isn’t going anywhere but down once the economy turns down. The risk-reward isn’t good at all.

VNQ (Real Estate)

Real estate is doing well. It seems that all that money printing is going into housing and the stock market. We've got a big upside target of 119.47, a 24% upside. 

WTI Crude Oil

Is the War on or not? Is it the weekend or business hours?

Crude is under pressure, providing some relief for inflation expectations. But it raises questions about global demand, as I’ve said for years. The long-term energy transition story keeps a structural floor under prices, but in the near term, the demand picture is doing most of the work.

The next downside target of 66.65 is only about 4% away. 

Copper

Copper is still in an extended rally, and my colleague Matt Badiali is massively bullish. But we need to get back above $6.70 to keep it going. In the meantime, there may be turbulence all the way down to $5.55.

Gold

I want to jump on the gold train, my friend, I really do, but there is not one shred of evidence this sell-off is over. I imagine that once we get down to the 3,800-3,900 area, it will start to bottom out. And once that happens, and time does its thing by healing the chart, the rally will resume. 

Silver

The bad news is we may have another 20% down to go. This chart is plain broken. But again, once we have the necessary time to build a base, silver will roar back. The immediate downside target is $44.95.

Bitcoin

My goodness, is Michael Saylor in trouble! Bitcoin continues its downside swoon and will likely drop all the way down to at least $37,450. If Strategy (MSTR) implodes, we may get down to 20,000. I wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a barge pole right now. 

Ethereum

I love the long-term prospects of Ether. But right now, it’s targeting under $1,000. Avoid for now… but when it bottoms out, I agree with the tech guys: Hoover it up.

Summary: Traditional Asset Classes

Summary: Crypto

Wrap Up

Equities are still hot, while cryptocurrency and silver were hammered. Copper has done well, while gold continues to disappoint.

While politics dictates much of what’s going on, the markets will assert themselves once again, probably sooner than later.