“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” - Mark Twain.

Everyone, and I mean everyone, thinks the GOP will sweep next year’s midterm elections, history be damned! It’s moments like these when I feel a sudden wave of sobriety overwhelm me, and my brain turns back on.

Sure, I’d love The Donald to vanquish the Left Wing Threat once and for all, but I’m too old and too well-traveled to know that fairy tale hogwash just doesn’t happen. As I sit in my hotel room in New York City, a city so nice they’ll vote for commies twice (Mamdani and AOC), I find it difficult to believe this is Trump’s hometown, once governed by a no-nonsense Rudy Giuliani.

The thing is, the incumbent party almost always loses the midterm elections. And I’m not so sure The Donald’s popularity is that high that he can count those chickens a year and a bit before they hatch.

Let’s get into the numbers.

Approval

At this summer’s political high tide, the Republican Party seems to be riding the wave. According to a new Wall Street Journal poll, only 33% of registered voters view the Democratic Party favorably—the worst rating Democrats have received in the poll’s 35-year history.

A whopping 63% view them unfavorably. That’s a generational low, and it’s no wonder alternative outlets like ZeroHedge are crowing.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is holding at around 46% approval, and Republicans are leading Democrats on most major issues—immigration, inflation, tariffs, and foreign policy. At a glance, the GOP appears unstoppable.

But here’s the rub: when you dig into the details, there’s a strong case that Republicans may already be peaking. Despite the favorable topline numbers, the WSJ poll also shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 46% to 43%. That may not sound like much, but it’s enough to suggest that while voters are disenchanted with the Democrats, they’re not exactly thrilled about the Republicans either.

And if history is any guide, midterm elections are rarely kind to the party in power, especially if that party is Trump’s GOP.

A Familiar Trap: Peaking Too Early

Trump’s approval rating has stabilized, but that stability is a double-edged sword. Sitting in the mid-40s might be good enough to win a general election with the right electoral map, but it’s also a ceiling.

Barring some massive shift, Trump isn’t likely to win over the voters who’ve already made up their minds against him. And while Democrats are in disarray, they still have 16 months to regroup. Remember, political momentum is a fragile thing, and public opinion can pivot quickly when fueled by scandal, economic downturns, or strategic messaging.

There’s also a sense of fatigue creeping in. Voters might love Trump’s bravado when things are going their way, but populist strongmen wear thin in times of economic or geopolitical turbulence. If Trump continues to stoke drama on trade, tariffs, or foreign alliances, voters could sour on him, especially independents and suburban moderates. And let’s not forget: Republicans are still vulnerable to demographic shifts, turnout swings, and the occasional own goal.

The Democrats' Redemption?

It would be foolish to count the Democrats out. Yes, their favorability is in the toilet. Yes, they’re struggling to connect with voters on bread-and-butter issues like inflation and immigration. But they still lead in healthcare and education. They still enjoy structural advantages in mobilizing blue-state voters. And they still have a chance to flip the narrative between now and November 2026.

More importantly, Democrats have the benefit of being the opposition. That means they can run against Trump’s record without having to defend their own. If they can sharpen their message—away from boutique identity obsessions and back toward the kitchen table—they could claw their way back into voter trust. The potential is there. All it takes is one savvy strategist, one lucky economic break, or one major Trump stumble.

Why 2026 Matters More Than You Think

If Democrats retake Congress in 2026, Trump will become a lame-duck president. That means two full years of gridlock, investigation, and executive overreach. And we’ve been down that road before.

Executive orders aren’t legislation. They’re temporary, reversible, and fragile. They bypass the democratic process—and as we’ve seen, the next president can nuke them with a stroke of a pen.

Except for the One Big Beautiful Bill, Trump has been governing by executive order in his second term, and he’s setting himself up for a legislative time bomb. A Democratic House or Senate could block his priorities, force compromises, or simply wait him out. The long-term legacy of a president who rules by fiat can be easily erased.

And that’s not good for the country, no matter which side you’re on. Lawmaking by EO invites instability. It tempts presidents into grandstanding instead of consensus-building. It turns every administration into a pendulum of reaction, rather than a builder of durable policy.

Wrap Up

The GOP may look strong now. But political history is littered with parties that peaked too early. If Democrats can get their act together—and that’s a big if—they still have a narrow but real path to a midterm resurgence. And if they pull it off, Trump’s final two years will be marked by the one thing he hates most: impotence.

So before Republicans pop the champagne, they might want to double-check the calendar. There’s a long way to go until November 2026—and more than enough time for the tide to turn.