It seems the rally will continue until the bears’ morale improves.

US equities ripped higher, with the S&P 500 closing out April with a monthly gain of 10.4%, its largest since November 2020. Caterpillar, Alphabet, and a wall of Q1 earnings beats did the heavy lifting, and the index punched through 7,200 for the first time on the 30th.

Bonds got the opposite memo: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped about 7 bps to 4.42% on Wednesday, a new high in roughly a month, after a hawkish FOMC hold and three dissents led traders to price out cuts entirely and even sniff at a 2027 hike.

Crypto joined the party — Bitcoin closed April with an 11.87% gain, reclaiming $75,900 as institutions piled back into spot ETFs.

In short, stocks and crypto partied, while bonds got punished.

A quick reminder before we proceed:

The moving averages we use (10-week and 40-week, roughly equivalent to the 50-day and 200-day) are our primary trend filters. When the price is above both, the trend is with you. When it's below both, it isn't. Everything else is commentary. Please note that “cautiously bullish” or “cautiously bearish” is when the price is between the moving averages.

We cover fifteen assets across eight categories: US equities, rates, the dollar, bonds, real estate, energy, metals, and crypto. Each gets a chart, a stats table, and a short commentary. At the end, you'll find summary return tables across traditional assets and crypto, ranked by month-to-date performance.

S&P 500

March Close	6,528.52	Month-to-Date	+10.4%
April Close	7,209.01	Quarter-to-Date	+10.4%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+5.3%

Commentary

The S&P 500 closed the month at 7,209.01, +10.4% month-to-date. The index remains above both its 10-week MA (6,814.55) and 40-week MA (6,723.61), going from bearish to bullish just this past month. Is this real? Well, bull markets always climb a wall of worry. But you’d be crazy to short this right now.

Target / Risk

The upside target is 7,963… though we’re miles away from that right now.

Nasdaq Composite

March Close	21,591	Month-to-Date	+15.3%
April Close	24,892	Quarter-to-Date	+15.3%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+7.1%

Commentary

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,892, +15.3% month-to-date. The Composite holds above both its 10-week MA (22,877) and 40-week MA (22,687), a bullish technical posture. Mega-cap technology names that drove the 2024 rally have been the biggest drag, with multiple compressions hitting hardest where valuations were most stretched.

Target / Risk

Now, we’re looking at the 27,700 mark, about 11% upside from here.

Russell 2000

March Close	2,496.37	Month-to-Date	+12.2%
April Close	2,799.91	Quarter-to-Date	+12.2%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+12.8%

Commentary

The Russell 2000 closed at 2,799.91, +12.2% month-to-date. The Russell holds above both its 10-week MA (2,612.31) and 40-week MA (2,495.17), a bullish setup. Small caps are more domestically oriented, offering some insulation from trade war fears, but they are also more exposed to tighter credit conditions and a slowing consumer.

Target / Risk

The target is 324, representing a 16.5% upside.

US 10-Year Yield

March Close	4.31%	Month-to-Date	+1.8%
April Close	4.39%	Quarter-to-Date	+1.8%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+5.5%

Commentary

The US 10-year yield stands at 4.39%, +1.8% month-to-date. The bond market is pricing in persistent inflation and fiscal concerns, with the term premium rising as foreign buyers reduce their appetite for US Treasuries. (Those hedge funds in the Caymans flatter the official holdings.) Watch 4.5% as the key resistance: a sustained break above it would put pressure on equities.

Target / Risk

The only target is 4.96%. If we approach that, expect equities to sell off.

US Dollar (DXY)

March Close	99.96	Month-to-Date	-1.9%
April Close	98.08	Quarter-to-Date	-1.9%
Trend	Bearish	Year-to-Date	-0.2%

Commentary

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.08, -1.9% month-to-date. The trend is currently bearish, with the DXY below its 10-week MA (98.93) and 40-week MA (98.54). The longer-term backdrop remains dollar-bearish as twin-deficit concerns intensify.

Target / Risk

Though there’s a downside target of 79.75, we’ve been rangebound for a year.

TLT (20Y Bond)

March Close	86.35	Month-to-Date	-0.8%
April Close	85.62	Quarter-to-Date	-0.8%
Trend	Bearish	Year-to-Date	-0.7%

Commentary

TLT closed at 85.62, -0.8% month-to-date, with the trend currently bearish. Long-duration bonds continue to bear the brunt of the yield rise. The risk here is a vicious cycle: rising yields tighten financial conditions, which in turn weaken growth.

Target / Risk

No current targets. We’ve been in a range from 83.30 to 92.20 for a year. Need to wait for a break either way. 

LQD (IG Corp)

March Close	108.54	Month-to-Date	+0.3%
April Close	108.85	Quarter-to-Date	+0.3%
Trend	Caut. Bullish	Year-to-Date	-0.1%

Commentary

LQD closed at 108.85, +0.3% month-to-date. Credit spreads have widened modestly as growth fears build, though the move has been orderly — markets are not yet pricing in a recession. The key risk is LQD could roll over, but it’s too early to tell.

Target / Risk

No current targets. Waiting for trend reversal confirmation.

HYG (High Yield)

March Close	79.18	Month-to-Date	+1.5%
April Close	80.38	Quarter-to-Date	+1.5%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+1.2%

Commentary

HYG closed at 80.38, +1.5% month-to-date. High yield is bullish, with the ETF above its 10-week MA (79.75) and 40-week MA (78.88). A deterioration in the jobs market could see spreads blow out quickly.

Target / Risk

No activated targets yet.

VNQ (Real Estate)

March Close	88.70	Month-to-Date	+8.6%
April Close	96.33	Quarter-to-Date	+8.6%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+10.0%

Commentary

VNQ closed at 96.33, +8.6% month-to-date. Office property remains structurally challenged post-pandemic, and residential REITs face affordability headwinds. And yet, the trend is clearly bullish for now.

Target / Risk

No current targets.

WTI Crude Oil

March Close	101.38	Month-to-Date	+3.6%
April Close	105.07	Quarter-to-Date	+3.6%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+83.0%

Commentary

WTI Crude (rolling front-month) closed at 105.07, +3.6% month-to-date. Crude has been supported by geopolitical risk premiums, though demand concerns tied to a slowing global economy are capping upside. Also, every time WTI gets too hot, the White House posts on X that Iran is capitulating or some such nonsense. The supply-demand balance remains tight.

Target / Risk

The current upside target is 128.10.

Copper

March Close	5.59	Month-to-Date	+6.1%
April Close	5.93	Quarter-to-Date	+6.1%
Trend	Bullish	Year-to-Date	+5.3%

Commentary

Copper futures closed at 5.93, +6.1% month-to-date. Copper has been reassessing the pace of the global manufacturing recovery, with China's property sector remaining a structural drag despite stimulus measures. The long-term electrification and energy transition story keeps a floor under prices. The physical market is genuinely tight.

Target / Risk

The current upside target is 6.93.

Gold

March Close	4,647.60	Month-to-Date	-0.7%
April Close	4,614.70	Quarter-to-Date	-0.7%
Trend	Caut. Bullish	Year-to-Date	+6.7%

Commentary

Gold (rolling front-month) closed at 4,614.70, -0.7% month-to-date. The yellow metal has decoupled from its traditional inverse relationship with real yields — a structural shift worth watching. From a technical perspective, I’m still not convinced.

Target / Risk

We have a short-term upside target of 5,505. But we also have a longstanding downside target of 3,495.

Silver

March Close	74.69	Month-to-Date	-1.5%
April Close	73.53	Quarter-to-Date	-1.5%
Trend	Caut. Bullish	Year-to-Date	+4.8%

Commentary

Silver (rolling front-month) closed at 73.53, -1.5% month-to-date. Silver faces pressure from a slowing global manufacturing cycle. The gold/silver ratio has widened, historically a sign of risk-off conditions. When the cycle turns, silver tends to outperform gold sharply. Patience may reward bulls, but timing is everything.

Target / Risk

The immediate downside target is 63.40. The next target is an eyewatering 36.80.

Bitcoin

March Close	68,233	Month-to-Date	+11.1%
April Close	75,776	Quarter-to-Date	+11.1%
Trend	Caut. Bearish	Year-to-Date	-13.4%

Commentary

Bitcoin closed at 75,776, +11.1% month-to-date. Bitcoin has shown some resilience relative to equities, a modest decoupling that crypto bulls will point to as evidence of maturing as an asset class. We may have hit the bottom last month.

Target / Risk

BTC has an older downside target of 55,420. It has a newer, upside target of 87,690.

Ethereum

March Close	2,104.71	Month-to-Date	+7.1%
April Close	2,253.42	Quarter-to-Date	+7.1%
Trend	Caut. Bearish	Year-to-Date	-24.1%

Commentary

Ethereum has been the weaker of the two major cryptos, with the ETH/BTC ratio in a persistent downtrend as Bitcoin dominance rises in risk-off environments. But ETH may be staging a comeback.

Target / Risk

The next upside target is 2,454.

Summary: Traditional Asset Classes

Asset	Price	MTD	QTD	YTD	Trend
S&P 500	7,209.01	+10.4%	+10.4%	+5.3%	Bullish
Nasdaq Composite	24,892	+15.3%	+15.3%	+7.1%	Bullish
Russell 2000	2,799.91	+12.2%	+12.2%	+12.8%	Bullish
US 10-Year Yield	4.39%	+1.8%	+1.8%	+5.5%	Bullish
US Dollar (DXY)	98.08	-1.9%	-1.9%	-0.2%	Bearish
TLT (20Y Bond)	85.62	-0.8%	-0.8%	-0.7%	Bearish
LQD (IG Corp)	108.85	+0.3%	+0.3%	-0.1%	Caut. Bullish
HYG (High Yield)	80.38	+1.5%	+1.5%	+1.2%	Bullish
VNQ (Real Estate)	96.33	+8.6%	+8.6%	+10.0%	Bullish
WTI Crude Oil	105.07	+3.6%	+3.6%	+83.0%	Bullish
Copper	5.93	+6.1%	+6.1%	+5.3%	Bullish
Gold	4,614.70	-0.7%	-0.7%	+6.7%	Caut. Bullish
Silver	73.53	-1.5%	-1.5%	+4.8%	Caut. Bullish

Summary: Crypto

Asset	Price	MTD	QTD	YTD	Trend
Monero	376.22	+13.0%	+13.0%	-13.2%	Caut. Bearish
Dogecoin	0.1040	+12.8%	+12.8%	-11.3%	Caut. Bearish
Bitcoin	75,776	+11.1%	+11.1%	-13.4%	Caut. Bearish
Ethereum	2,253.42	+7.1%	+7.1%	-24.1%	Caut. Bearish
Litecoin	55.30	+2.6%	+2.6%	-28.0%	Caut. Bearish
Ripple (XRP)	1.37	+2.2%	+2.2%	-25.6%	Bearish

Notice how, while cryptocurrencies are down year-to-date, they posted sharp gains last month. We may have seen the bottom.

Wrap Up

It looks like we’re in a risk-on environment, with stocks and crypto leading the way.

Let’s have a laugh, courtesy of the X-verse:

Have a great weekend!