When I look into the mailbag, I don’t just seek validation and agreement. Though I must admit, they make me feel good.

But when someone writes a Rude piece he read is “the dumbest thing I’ve ever read on the Internet,” I’m beyond curious.

So let’s get right on it.

No, It’s Not Suez!

Dear Sean,

Your screed about the Houthies and the US is about the dumbest thing I’ve ever read on the Internet. You certainly do not know what the hell you’re talking about and are taking up space in my brain when I need to be working and investing money. Stick to financing, money, and stock suggestions, and keep your stupid, uninformed, ill-educated rants about politics out of our faces, please, and thank you!

Whoever you are, you forgot to sign your name. So I’ll refer to you as Nemo.

Nemo, I’m all ears. The last thing I want anyone to think is that I ruined their morning cup of coffee. Just thinking about it fills me with dread. My goal every day is to make you and every other reader just one fact smarter and one story happier than you were the day before. That’s it. We call it “The Rule of One” here at Paradigm. We only write about one subject each time.

I chose that subject because chokepoints really, really matter in our brave new world.

I assume you’re talking about the April 5th article titled “A Watery Grave,” where I assert the US is having a “Suez Moment” like the Brits and French had in 1956.

I start the piece with a history of the Suez Crisis, complete with names and dates. I then go to the current situation, where I quote U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking saying, "We favor a diplomatic solution. We know that there is no military solution," and then link to the briefing where he actually says it.

I then show that failure after failure by Joke Biden, especially after the muffed Afghanistan pullout, has wrecked the US’s reputation. Finally, I assert no one is afraid of the US or Israel anymore and that Biden was stupid to release the $6 billion to the Iranians (who are funding the Houthis) without guarantees.

Nemo, I’m totally ok if you don’t think this is the US’s “Suez Crisis.” I looked up “Suez Crisis” on X and found that most point to Ukraine as being the US’s Suez Crisis.

But as we’re twenty days on from my article, let me ask you this:

1. Is the Suez Canal open?
2. Are the Houthis still holding world trade hostage?
3. Have Egypt’s finances recovered?
4. Is the US closer to solving the problem?

No. No. No. And… No.

I leave you with this. My good friend and Managing Editor of Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets, Dave Gonigam, sent me this yesterday, completely unbidden:

Credit: @LukeGromen

Iran

Hello Sean,

In your column, you say that sanctions will not work on Russia. Your charts obviously indicate that sanctions will not work because Russia has so many options in which they can engage in trade. Do you think increased sanctions will work on Iran? Iran can still trade directly with Russia & China The USA cannot block that if the trading partners simply ignore the USA. Joke Biden just applied more sanctions to Iran but "the joke is on us" since the Biden Regime overlooked Iranian oil.

Jeff R.

Hi Jeff! Thanks for writing. No, I don’t think sanctions work on Iran. Bloomberg explains that in excellent practical terms here. But if you look at Jim Rickards’ framework, you need three conditions satisfied for sanctions to work. They are:

1. The target country must have a small- or medium-sized economy with little robustness or resiliency to sanctions.
2. The target country must have limited access to alternative payment channels and few allies in any effort to obtain hard currency.
3. The target country must have limited hard currency reserves or gold with which to evade or wait out sanctions.

Iran’s economic resilience has shocked Western observers. Of course, having besties like China and Russia helps. Thanks to Russia and China, Iran has access to alternative payment channels. And evidence suggests that Iran has the reserves to weather quite a storm, especially with all the oil they sell as Biden turns a blind eye.

Origin Story

From Kentucky, good morning Sean!

I enjoyed your story so much that I had to write and tell you personally. I’m the son of immigrant parents from Vienna, Austria, and have also done a lot of traveling - but for different reasons… I enjoy your perspective and your writing style and wanted to say thank you, keep up the good work! Take your family out for some ice cream - I know it’s phenomenal there!!

Thanks again and have a great weekend!

Edwin P.

Thank you for the kind words, Edwin! Much appreciated. Pam and I were just talking about getting back to Vienna. We had a fabulous time there at the Christmas markets in 2019. As for the ice cream, it’s incredible… but oh my blood sugar!

Nowhere to Run

Sean,

Good story today. We know that our politicians and Federal agencies are all not doing their jobs and I’m glad that you keep pointing that out. What interests me today though, is it not the same BS wherever you are, in your case Italy and the EU. Is there any place that one can hide from all of this nonsense?

James T.

It’s a great question, James. My philosophy remains the same: get to a country you love that has a great tax deal. Society, as we know it, is unsavable, so it’s all about you and your family getting the best deal you can. My family and I have a great deal here and we’ve made loads of friends (luckily). The government becomes less of a nuisance when you have more cash at your disposal and a great network to rely on.

One For Byron

I read the article on the truckers' protest and found it to be remarkably accurate. Canada is a federation of provinces with a national government with certain restricted powers and provinces with lawmaking powers over the areas they encompass. Increasingly over the past decades, the federal government has been trying to increase its influence to ensure power and capital flow to central Canada. There exists a division of political power both east and west of central Canada. There are sharp divisions of interests (and taxation). The so-called Truckers protest was a general show of dissent, not an organized protest. It was very much opposed to Liberal socialism which is prevalent throughout the country. Natural trade routes are north-south so the west of Canada has much in common interests with the American west as opposed to central Canada interests. It is necessary to recognize that Canadian politics is very different from American politics….but both are trending towards socialism.

John M.

Thanks for writing in, John. I’ll pass this on to Byron.

Donnie Baseball and Trading

Sean,

Interesting read today, you pointing out <$10 trades for “essentially” the same thing is really interesting/helpful to me. Keep ‘em comin’.

If you mention Mattingly, you might know that he coached a AAA team in Joliet, Illinois, for a year or two.

Jim T.

Thanks for writing in again, Jim! I’ll do my best to keep on keeping on. I was unaware that Donnie Baseball coached in Illinois. Thanks for that!

Vesuvius

The last time I was in Naples was Christmas Eve in 1980. I remember the damage from the recent earthquake. God forbid that Vesuvius lets loose anytime soon. Your photo reminds me a little of Mt. Rainier, which looms in the distance over the poor devils in Seattle and Tacoma, Washington (except for the lack of snow). Folks I know who have summited Rainier say that up there you can smell the brimstone. Like the big V, it's not dead, only sleeping, and woe to those who get in the way of the inevitable pyroclastic flows.

RJS

Hi RJS! Thanks for writing in. It amazes me how Neapolitans just go about their day with that huge volcano in the background.

Wrap Up

What a great mailbag! Feel free to write in any time you like.

Until then, keep well.