My good friend and colleague Alan Knuckman likes to say, “There’s always a bull market somewhere.” Paradigm’s very own Maverick Enrique Abeyta once told me, “I’m bullish 90% of the time because the market goes up 90% of the time.”

I agree with both of them.

This article isn’t a “Dump everything and run because a crash is coming!” piece. As you know, economists (especially the Austrian School sort) have called 10 of the last 3 crashes.

But as I’ve written extensively on gold and silver, I felt it was my duty to update you about these markets. And since technology is the big story of, well, the 21st century, I thought I’d cover that, as well.

In short, despite overwhelming macroeconomic arguments for higher metal prices, we may be heading down again. And the Nasdaq, particularly from a chart perspective, looks exposed.

Silver

Silver is getting throttled again, down 4.0% to 74.25, as I write this at 5 am NY time. Silver’s chart is weak. Let me illustrate.

On this candlestick chart, we can see the 50-day moving average (purple dotted line) and the 200-day moving average (red dashed line). As the price candles are now below the 50-day MA, we are now in a short-term bear market. (But not a long-term bear market, as we’re still above the 200-day MA.) We also see lower highs, as indicated by the diagonal blue line.

If you notice the RSI chart below the candlestick chart, silver isn’t oversold yet. That means we may still have a way to go. 

And if silver falls below the closing low of 70.93 (horizontal blue line), it’ll massively increase the chances of it falling to the $50/$60 area. And while silver (and silver miner) holders wouldn’t like this development too much, bouncing off that generational support would be bullish, to say the least.

In short, I expect silver to break below 71, head to the 50/60 area, and then rally after that.

Gold

My good friend and colleague Dave Gonigam posted on our Slack editorial channel this past Saturday, “Am I looking at the gold charts right? Was yesterday the first weekly close over $5000?”

That’s correct. Last week, gold closed at $5,043.92… indeed, over $5,000 for the first time.

And though this is the daily gold chart, you can notice right away that it isn’t as dire as silver’s.

Gold is still in short- and long-term bull markets, as its moving averages show.

But here’s where I’m not as excited. There are lower highs (though admittedly not lower lows… yet). And the 4,921 recent close is in danger of getting violated as I write, with gold down 2.37% to 4,923.

If gold closes below that level, it will probably head towards its 50-day moving average first, which is currently 4,633. The next support below that is 4,530. If we get that far, we’ll activate a downside target of $3,500, though the likelihood of getting down there is low.

If I were forced to choose between silver and gold right now, it’d be gold. But only because silver is much more vulnerable.

Nasdaq

Tech has been moving sideways for a while.

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 23,958 (upper horizontal blue line) back in October. Though we challenged and nearly surpassed that level last month, it wasn’t meant to be. Since then, the Nazzie has fallen 5.5% and not made any new highs (diagonal blue line).

We’re now below the 50-day moving average. The prior low of 22,078 (lower horizontal blue line) is converging with the 200-day moving average (red dashed line).

If we fall below that 22,078 level, the next downside target is 20,200.

Unless there is some great news on the horizon for tech, it doesn’t look all that bullish right now. And a new Fed Chairman cutting rates at the behest of a President concerned about the mid-term elections will not be enough to turn the ship around.

Wrap Up

With all that said, let’s turn the frown upside down.

The utilities sector had a great week last week. Energy, particularly oil equipment and services, is rallying hard. VAL and ESOA were up over 50% last week.

And yes, gold miners still did well.

But with the Viszla tragedy hanging over silver miners, and the underlying silver chart looking weak, I’m very cautious.

And the Nasdaq looks vulnerable.

None of this means we’re going to see a crash soon. It just means to make sure you do your due diligence before rushing headlong into these sectors.