For the first weekend in ages, I shut off all social media, including the Paradigm Press Slack channel, didn’t check my email, and stayed off the Internet. It was as restful as it sounds.

Of course, I woke up this morning to an entirely different world.

By “liberating” - their word, not mine - Syria from Bashar al-Assad’s grip, the United States has, for the first time in ages, pulled off a masterstroke of statecraft that will reset the world map, keep Turkey in NATO, allow the Middle East to feed Europe much cheaper energy, kick Russia out of the Middle East, and somewhat gracefully walk away from Ukraine.

Credit: @RealPepeEscobar

Forget about BRICS and their new currency or Europe breaking away from the U.S.’s influence. The United States will be in charge for the next hundred years, debt be damned.

Though it gets eastern Ukraine as a concession for not making a fuss, Russia is the clear loser here. Yes, its southern flank is secure - which may be enough for them - but their power-projection credibility is gone. That will send a shiver down the BRICS spine.

Before we continue, here are a couple of warnings.

First, your Democrat friends will claim this happened under Joke Biden’s late watch and that it was his gift to the world before leaving the Oval Office. I assure you, Biden is watching nothing except Donald Trump run rings around him, already performing his presidential duties months earlier than expected. Whether the alphabet agencies were directed to do this, or they did it in anticipation of Trump coming in and cleaning house, this has The Art of the Deal written all over it.

Second, if your chest is puffed out and you’re singing You’re a Grand Old Flag to yourself, I assure you the U.S. didn’t “liberate” Syria for the sake of democracy, freedom, or good neighborliness. Of course, ultimately, this is about oil.

The U.S. saw that Assad didn’t crush the opposition when he could have and stood by while his chief allies, Russia and Iran, got bogged down in their own conflicts. Neither could afford the manpower to defend Syria, making it a sitting duck.

Turkey, who practically begged Assad to take their Syrian refugees back but was refused, will expand their borders into what will become “the former state of Syria.” But this will damage, probably beyond repair, their relationship with Russia. All the better for the NATO family.

Why is this so important? Here’s a clue: as of writing, gold is up $25. Can you say, “War premium?”

Brief Event Summary

Good friend and colleague Dave Gonigam posted this in our Slack channel:

Credit: @caitoz

After an 8-year break, Turkish-backed Syrian rebels took over Aleppo on November 30th and moved toward the center of Syria. They took Damascus this weekend.

Syria has fallen, but the implications and outcomes extend far beyond its borders.

Iran, Ukraine, and Russia: The Losers

Assad's fall disrupts Iran's "Axis of Resistance," which includes alliances with groups like Hezbollah. Syria served as a crucial conduit for Iranian arms supplies to reach Hezbollah in Lebanon. With the regime's collapse, Iran faces increased isolation and a weakened position in the region.

Ukraine will now be sacrificed as a concession to Russia for backing out of the Middle East without a fight. With 500,000 deaths and a massive loss of land, Ukrainians will rightly wonder what the point was of the war. The rump state will be neutered, while Russia keeps what it conquered, with the West’s blessing. It’s an awful state of affairs.

A staunch supporter of Assad, Russia's military and strategic investments in Syria have gone up in smoke. The loss undermines Russia's credibility as an ally and military power and wrecks its influence in the Middle East. While it’ll get to keep what it conquered in Ukraine, its worldwide impact will be diminished for decades.

The Winners

Turkey Parties Like It’s 1699

Good friend and frequent Rude contributor Byron King wrote this in our Slack channel:

Turkish fingerprints ALL over this crime scene.

Turkey will rearrange its borders a bit... southerly, into former Syria.

Former Syria will balkanize into smaller units, religious-based more or less.

Look for a proto-Kurdistan nation state in northeast.

Turkey has long opposed Assad's regime and supported certain rebel factions. Assad's ouster could allow Turkey to expand its borders into the former state of Syria, address security concerns related to Kurdish groups (probably in the northeast of where Syria was), and kick out their unwanted Syrian refugees. It’ll feel like Ottoman times for Erdogan and his crew.

Europe Will Get Cheaper Energy

Here’s the U.S.’s genuine masterstroke: it pays its vassals in the Middle East (Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar) by letting them ship their cheap energy to a struggling Europe. This also knocks Iran out of the European markets.

Credit: @robinmonotti

Paying 4x for shipped LNG instead of just buying Russian pipelined gas has decimated the German economy, among many others.

Trump will have an easier time getting his base to accept financing NATO now that European funds will flow to the Middle East instead of Moscow.

Israel Gets a Breather

By breaking Syria, Iran no longer has a direct road to ship its arms to Hezbollah. Bibi must be licking his chops, making up war plans against the Iranians, which no one will oppose now. Crucially, Trump has satisfied, for now, his AIPAC donors.

The U.S. Keeps Its Empire

No, the U.S. couldn’t cope with Russian hypersonics. Now, it doesn’t have to. By giving the Middle East a big payoff, Europe energy relief, Israel its breathing room, Turkey a leg up in the region, and Ukraine a cigarette before its execution, it has satisfied all its allies and cut a deal to extricate itself from the needless situation on the Russian border.

Now, it can concentrate on China.

Wrap Up

Bashar al-Assad is holed up in Moscow with his family. It’s a poor silver medal for the Russians. As for America, it once again comes out on top. Well played, Mr. Trump.

With this out of the way, Trump can concentrate on domestic policy, at least at the start of his second administration.

Why does this matter to you? I think it’s simple. In the short term, we may have some wild volatility. Gold is up $25 as I write. But oil hasn’t moved, surprisingly. In the long term, the metals and energy markets will stabilize. Invest accordingly.

What a way to begin a week!

Have a great one.