When you’ve been around long enough, you start to realize that in geopolitics, irony isn’t a bug, nor is it a feature. It’s the whole damn system.

Case in point: Trump’s latest round of sanctions on Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil. The Treasury’s press release was full of thunder and righteousness about “choking the financial backbone of the Kremlin.” 

Meanwhile, the markets just said…

Oil prices jumped 3–5% overnight. Brent cleared $65. WTI is over $61. Wall Street and the Kremlin both popped champagne—albeit for different reasons.

Or not so different.

The Paradox of Punishment

On paper, this was a brutal hit to Moscow’s energy sector. In practice, it’s the best thing that could’ve happened to both Russia and American oil producers.

See, Russia’s 2025 budget balances at around $45–50 per barrel. Anything above that is gravy. Oil at $60–65 means Putin’s war machine still hums along, even if his export volumes dip. He’ll sell fewer barrels, sure—but each one’s now worth more.

That’s not punishment. That’s a pay raise.

And Russia, being the veteran sanctions-survivor it is, will just route its crude through the “shadow fleet”—tankers with more flags than a UN conference and less insurance than a teenage driver. The oil will flow, and more middlemen will make money along the way.

The Yankee Bonus

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the shale boys are grinning from ear to ear.

These sanctions have effectively ensured that oil prices remain well above $60, the minimum threshold where shale can become profitable. To be safe, oil needs to be in the $65-70 range. With winter coming and domestic production flatlining, this was the lifeline U.S. producers needed.

ExxonMobil, Chevron, Pioneer—they all just got a geopolitical dividend, courtesy of Trump’s foreign policy team.

Europe, scrambling to replace banned Russian energy, will now pay higher prices for American crude, LNG, and refined products. So Washington gets to play the moral high ground and the merchant of energy. That’s what you call “doing well by doing good”—or at least pretending to.

The Mencken Rule in Action

H.L. Mencken once said, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

Sanctions are the foreign-policy version of that.

They make voters feel righteous. They punish “bad guys.” But more often than not, they just tighten global supply, raise prices, and enrich the very people they’re supposed to hurt.

We’ve seen it with Iran. With Venezuela. With Russia. Every time, the pattern’s the same: higher prices, higher profits, and higher hypocrisy.

Putin’s Secret Smile

Don’t kid yourself—Putin isn’t losing sleep over this. Oil near $65 is like a state-sponsored massage. It funds the war, the pensions, the propaganda machine. It keeps the oligarchs fat and the ruble semi-stable.

If anything, he should send Trump a thank-you card.

Because when Washington “gets tough,” the market just gets tight—and that’s the only kind of “squeeze” an oil state ever enjoys.

Wrap Up

Let’s be clear: this wasn’t a policy blunder. It was Trump throwing a bone to Putin and kicking Zelenskyy in the goolies. I’m sure he’s enjoying it.

Trump gets to look tough on Russia. American producers get richer. Europe pays more but stays politically loyal. Russia still gets paid. Everyone wins—except the Ukrainians and the consumer.

And in the end, that’s who always foots the bill for “geopolitical strategy.”

Anyway, this move is inflationary. With Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent comments about how the high price of gold has helped the USG, this may be just one part of a bigger strategy.

So if you’re watching WTI flirt with $65 and thinking it’s bad news for the Kremlin… think again.

Sanctions are just subsidies in camouflage cosplay.