Print the page
Increase font size

Posted January 19, 2021

Scott Stewart

By Scott Stewart

Predicting a Big Earnings Play Winner!

Welcome to the Rude Awakening for January 19, 2021

Were looking at a shortened week, with markets being closed yesterday in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr.

Recording before market open, markets are looking to open strong today, reaching back for recent all time highs.

All technical indicators imply we are looking at an overbought market, but the market continues to push higher.

Kicking Off Earnings Season in Earnest

We are back in the swing of another new earnings season, folks.

The bank stocks are leading the way.

But, the big one for today is Netflix (NFLX).

Reporting after market close today, were looking at options with a 7.9% implied move. This is quite a bit higher than what we typically expect from NFLX upon earnings normally its a 3.3% move.

The at the money options on NFLX show implied volatility of 90%. If you remember one of our early lessons on options, you know that anything above 50% makes it a good juicy premium for an options play. So this one is something of an options traders dream!

We predict earnings will either meet or beat expectations, and so wed look to do a bullish play using options on NFLX.

Some More Bulls on Our Watchlist

Like I said, bank stocks are leading the way this earnings season.

One to watch is Morgan Stanley (MS), projected to open nearly 2% higher this morning. They will be reporting before market open tomorrow, and its showing a 4.4% implied move. The stock is currently priced to perfection, after its recent runup. We might look for a pullback on MS before a potential buy.

U.S. Bancorp (USB) is also reporting tomorrow morning, and in this one we are already starting to see a bit of a pullback. USB is showing a 3.7% implied move pending earnings.

Last but not least is Bank of America Corporation (BAC), which reported earnings this morning and has beat expectations by 2 cents. Even still, its down a little over 50 cents in the premarket, with bearish indicators. We are expecting a pullback to the $30 level.

Lots of activity coming your way this week, folks.

Well continue to find you winners as earnings season continues to ramp up.

Have a great trading day.

Well talk tomorrow!

Regards,

Scott Stewart

Scott Stewart

Editor, Rude Awakening

A Crude Awakening

A Crude Awakening

Posted October 23, 2026

By Sean Ring

Gold miners have a nasty problem. The price of what they sell is falling, while the price of what they burn is rising. I’ll show you how that combination can turn an 11% drop in gold into a 58% hit to mining profits.
All That Glitters Is Diesel

All That Glitters Is Diesel

Posted October 22, 2026

By Sean Ring

My friend Adam Sharp thinks silver is headed for $200. So do I. The difference is that Adam's holding his miners while I'm sitting in cash, waiting for the next fat pitch. And with oil above $113 a barrel, the biggest threat to mining profits isn't necessarily what's happening to gold and silver. It's what's happening to the stuff miners have to burn to get them out of the ground.
Treason’s Greetings!

Treason’s Greetings!

Posted October 21, 2026

By Sean Ring

Two hundred and thirty-one years ago, Americans called George Washington’s peace negotiator a traitor. Today, the Wall Street Journal’s readers are doing much the same thing. The technology has changed, but the tantrum remains the same.
Zach’s Second Opinion

Zach’s Second Opinion

Posted October 20, 2026

By Zach Scheidt

I sent you the wrong Zach article this morning. Fortunately, the right one's even better. Three healthcare giants report earnings tomorrow, and Zach thinks they could point the way to AI's next big investment opportunity.
A COLA, But No Smile

A COLA, But No Smile

Posted October 20, 2026

By Zach Scheidt

Congratulations! The Swamp Things have awarded you an extra $75 a month for surviving another year of inflation. Try not to spend it all at one gas station. Today, my old friend Zach Scheidt returns to the Rude with a better idea than waiting for Uncle Sam to make you whole.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Beige!

Give Me Liberty or Give Me Beige!

Posted October 19, 2026

By Matt Badiali

Americans once fought the world's greatest empire for the right to govern themselves. Now they pay $300 a month for the privilege of being told how tall their grass can grow.