I’m sick and tired of being sick and tired.

And since I sit here exasperated as I’ve been since this ill-conceived mess began, I thought I’d check the scoreboard.

What amazes me isn’t the unintended consequences. I didn’t know what they’d be, but I knew they were coming.

What blows my mind is that everything doom merchants have been selling for the past 25 years is coming to pass, in real time. Real de-dollarization. An empire breaking apart because it can neither bribe nor protect its periphery as promised. The empire’s metropole is blind to the consequences of its actions. Alfred Thayer Mahan’s blue ocean world is fading into history. Halford Mackinder’s world island is becoming a reality.

Am I an alarmist? You be the judge of that.

Here's the damage report so far, region by region.

The EU, Russia, and Ukraine

The transatlantic alliance is fracturing in real time.

First, calls of “We were there for you with Ukraine, but you weren’t here with us” are the biggest load of nonsense I’ve ever heard. I lived in Europe when we were perfectly happy, acknowledging that Ukraine was the most corrupt country in Europe, and it had no chance of ever getting into the EU.

John McCain, before his descent to the Underworld. Credit: CNN

Then came Arizona Senator John McCain. And Victoria “F*ck the EU” Nuland. Her husband, Robert Kagan, and his BFF, Bill Kristol, helped get the damnfool idea into the Ukrainians' heads that they could beat Russia with America’s help. Lady Lindsay couldn’t wait to jump aboard that train. All were eager to break up Russia and steal its resources.

The Cookie Monster, known as Victoria Nuland. Credit: Northwest Citizen

Being the pathetic vassals they are, the EU jumped when Biden said to do so, because he had to cover for Hunter. Of course, the CIA-sponsored European media painted Putin as the next Hitler as fast as they could.

When Germany tacitly turned a blind eye to the Nordstream bombing, the energy lifeline was cut. No more cheap, pipelined, plentiful Russian gas for Europe. The EU would agree, stupidly, to ship in LNG that’s up to 4x more expensive because they were ordered to.

As the EU watches LNG vessels originally slated for Europe get rerouted to Asia, naturally Europe is having a “WTF?” moment. What a rug pull!

And why is that happening? This stupid war.

So, of course, European leaders are furious that Washington launched a war without calling Brussels first. Energy costs are crushing German and French industry, and EU elites (and normies) are openly (and rightly) questioning American reliability.

Meanwhile, Putin is laughing his ass off. High oil prices fund his special military operation against Ukraine, while the U.S. distraction takes the pressure off Moscow. And while Europe needs Russian gas - Gerhard Schroeder was right all along - its elites refuse to do so. Bring back the guillotine, I say!

The transatlantic break is accelerating. Trump's America-first posture plus the Iran war has convinced European capitals that the US will abandon them the moment something shinier comes along.

Whispers are growing louder: if the Middle East consumes all of Washington's military bandwidth, NATO's days are numbered. If the US leaves NATO, Ukraine freezes. Then Europe will have to negotiate with Russia on Moscow's terms.

All this, and Putin didn't have to fire a shot.

Two Koreas Become One?

As I wrote not one month ago:

When Washington asked it to host THAAD missile-defense assets, knowing full well that Beijing would treat this as a provocation, South Korea acquiesced. It absorbed the consequences like a good ally.

China sanctioned, boycotted, and banned all things Korean. (No K-Pop for Yu!)

Domestically, the THAAD deployment became a political fault line. The government had sacrificed economic interests on Washington’s altar, and South Korea had traded a real commercial relationship with its largest trading partner for an abstract security promise from a distant one. The Korean public’s patience with this arrangement was finite. The costs were real, and they showed up in earnings reports and tourism receipts.

Then came the reallocation. After Seoul had paid China’s bill in full, Washington decided to move key elements of its defensive architecture out of South Korea and reposition them in the Middle East to support its posture in the region.

I thought South Korea might go groveling back to China. Here's what nobody saw coming: Seoul and Pyongyang might actually reconcile.

North Korea watched the US bomb Iran and concluded Washington can't fight on multiple fronts. South Korea reached the same conclusion from the other side and decided Pyongyang might be the only path to stability. Backchannels are now open.

The war in Iran is, paradoxically, creating space for Korean reconciliation.

Lesson: Acquiring nuclear weapons pays.

China and Taiwan

This war will take Taiwan off America’s hands, as well.

The leader of the Taiwanese opposition, Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wen, had this to say:

Americans didn’t go to fight for Ukraine, and NATO has not helped Ukraine fight. They just keep giving Ukraine weapons, letting you fight for one, two, three, or four years. The dead are Ukrainians, and Ukraine is destroyed.

Look at the whole of Ukraine, it is scarred, almost flattened. A whole generation of young people has disappeared on the battlefield. Still fighting.

After the war, have you won against Russia? Has Putin stepped down? Has Russia collapsed?

The U.S. led the world to impose the most severe, the most terrifying sanctions in history—economic sanctions. Has Russia’s economy collapsed? It’s been almost four years.

Could it be that Taiwan will become the second Ukraine? Does Taiwan have more land than Ukraine? And more people? Is China’s economic strength smaller than Russia’s? Is China’s military strength weaker than Russia’s? Is the Chinese mainland’s ruling regime more fragile than Putin’s? Or unstable?

After I ask these questions, you will know. Does Taiwan want to be Ukraine?

You can watch the video here.

The GCC and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Gulf sovereign wealth funds were built for a rainy day.

And boy, is it rainy in the Gulf or what?

GCC states are reviewing their US investments to offset war-driven economic shock. Gulf allies are unsettled. The war in Iran could crimp their American positions just as oil revenues spike. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are sitting on trillions in US Treasuries, equities, and real estate. If they start liquidating to rebuild their countries, and they will, bond yields spike, and Wall Street follows.

Here's the irony: the Gulf funded American military dominance for fifty years. Now they're asking whether that alliance protects them or paints a target on their backs. Some are quietly diversifying toward Beijing and Moscow. The war in Iran is accelerating the de-dollarization trend that Washington feared most.

Israel’s Big Mistake?

The black line going from Tehran to the east is the railway Israel bombed a few days ago. The problem is the line is the railroad connecting Tehran and its oil to China on the Belt and Road Initiative.

This railway only opened on June 3, 2025, with China investing 40 billion RMB in its construction. It was originally built to allow Iranian oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, reaching China directly and saving 20 days in transit time. It serves as a strategic corridor to "break through 13 years of U.S. sanctions."

The Chinese are quiet and deliberate. They’ve said nothing yet. I expect retaliation; what form that will take isn’t obvious to me.

Wrap Up

The key thing to watch here is the imminent reversal. Oil won’t stay down. Equity rallies will fade. The geopolitical consequences of this war are revealing themselves. The markets are more opaque at the moment.

But capital flows will shift. And sovereign wealth funds will be rebuilding the Gulf, rather than investing excess funds into the U.S.

We’ll keep an eye out for you.