• Sean is off this Friday, so Byron once again rides to the rescue!
• How many Chinese geology majors does it take to put the US out of business?
• If America planned like China, there would be a scientist behind every blade of grass.

It’s Good Friday and Sean Ring is taking time off with his family. He asked if I’d cover for him and I’m happy to do so. First of all, greetings to everyone.

Across the world, most markets are closed for Easter. Plus, it’s Passover for Jews and mid-Ramadan in Islam, which means that many people have throttled back for a few days. We can defer market commentary to next week, and then get back to figuring out which big bank will fail next, if not opine on President Trump and his legal travails in the Banana Republic of Manhattan.

Today, let’s think on the big side and discuss China, and her fast-growing national power. That’s worth some time, right? (Hint: yes.) I’ll tell you a story that explains how at least some of that power came about, with reference to China’s deep and very serious educational system. And I hope you come away with improved understanding of the unfolding future.

A Convention of Really Smart People

My tale begins 16 years ago, in April 2007 when I attended a convention of really smart people, namely an energy conference in Long Beach, Cal. There, I made an eye-opening discovery – to me at least – about China. And it remains pertinent, especially considering what has happened in the intervening time.

Back then I wrote about what I learned, in one of my old newsletters called Whiskey & Gunpowder, if you’ve been around for a while. I discussed what I called China’s “armies of geologists.” And here are some of the key points.

The Long Beach event was the annual convention of a professional group called the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), of which I’ve been a member since 1977. (Yep, I’m that old.)

Attendance was about 6,000, mostly oil- and gas-focused geologists from around the world, and others who work in related fields that range from service companies to government and academe.

One thing that struck me about the assembled throng was how collectively well-educated the whole group was. Many members of AAPG hold one or more master’s degrees in scientific and technical fields. The numbers of Ph.D.s, combined with the broad spectrum of research fields, was entirely impressive if things like that impress you.

So, the Long Beach Convention Center overflowed with smart people, dripping with ample amounts of academic wax and ribbons. Which brings me to the next part of the story.

Meet Mr. Wang, Marine Geologist

The AAPG event offered several field trips, and I signed up for one to visit historic oil sites in the Long Beach environs. Because yes, despite California’s current opposition to fossil fuels, the Long Beach-Los Angeles region is serious oil patch going back over a century, with deep petroleum legacy and plenty of geology on display if you know where to look.

The trip involved travel to different locales in a bus, which is how I came to be sitting in a seat when a guy walked up and asked if the adjacent seat was taken. I said no, he sat down, and we introduced ourselves.

The gentleman was Mr. Wang, a professor of marine geology from what he called the “University of Geoscience” in Wuhan, China. (Yes, that Wuhan.)

We began talking about geology, shop talk basically. And quickly, I figured out that this fellow had an excellent grasp of his field.

I asked Mr. Wang about his university in Wuhan. Among other questions, how many students attend the Wuhan University of Geoscience? “Oh, about 20,000,” he replied.

I was stunned. “You have 20,000 students majoring in geology?” I replied.

He paused for second, and then smiled. “Sorry, no,” he replied. “I didn’t mean to mis-speak. Many students study other fields besides geology, such as physics, chemistry, biology.”

So I asked again, “Well, how many people do you have studying geology?”

“Hmmm…,” said Mr. Wang. “About 10,000.”

Again, I was stunned. They have 10,000 students studying geology? And a similar number in physics, chemistry and biology? Holy Smokes!

I did some quick math in my head. My immediate sense was that if you took the top 500 colleges and universities in the U.S. and added up all the geology or earth science majors, you would still not reach 10,000. But here was one university in China with a clearly massive program.

Curious, I wanted to know more. “So, 10,000 geology students? In what aspects do these people pursue their studies?”

Mr. Wang thought for another few seconds and replied, “We teach necessary scientific background such as math, chemistry, and physics. Then we teach geological concepts like stratigraphy and mineralogy and structural geology. We move students into specific fields such as oil and gas geology, petroleum engineering, mineralogy, mining geology and engineering, civil engineering, geological engineering, marine geology, geochemistry, geophysics, and other fields that branch out from those subjects.”

“Do your students have jobs when they finish their studies?” I asked.

“Absolutely,” replied Mr. Wang. “Our students graduate, and many go on to obtain advanced degrees in China, as well as in Australia, Europe, and the U.S. We also send many students into the oil and gas industry, mining industry, and engineering fields. We have graduates working at geological projects everywhere; all across China, and as far away as Arabia, Africa, South America, and even performing research in Antarctica.”

Impressed, I queried Mr. Wang some more: “Since you have 10,000 students, is your school the main school for the study of geology in China?”

“No,” he replied. “Ours is one of three geoscience universities in China. Two other universities are comparable to ours. And many other universities have their own college of geology. Beijing University, for example, is a very great school that is attended by many of the best students in China. It has a college of geology with about 4,000 students.”

I followed-up: “Can you give me some idea of how many students study geology in China today?”

Mr. Wang thought for a moment. “If you add them together,” he said, “about 40,000 or 50,000 study geology at the university level. Maybe more, but I don’t want to give a number that’s too high.”

After a pause, Mr. Wang added: “Importance of geology begins at the top. The Premier of China, Wei Jiabao (China’s premier at that time, in 2007; BWK), is a geologist, by the way. He worked as a geological surveyor in his youth.”

Are You Impressed Yet?

Okay, think about that. In 2007 the then-premier of China was a geologist, and about 50,000 students studied geology. That was 16 years ago. Now, let’s say that China has graduated 10,000 geologists per year. Multiply times 16 equals 160,000 geologists, and I’m being conservative.

Per my research in 2007, that 50,000 number in China was over 20 times the number of college students studying geology in the U.S., which included significant numbers of foreign students enrolled at U.S. institutions.

Meanwhile in 2007, according to the National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. universities granted fewer than 500 advanced degrees in geology, and that number included related degrees in petroleum engineering. About half of those degrees were awarded to foreign nationals. So, the raw numbers were that China had 100 times that U.S. number in the geology pipeline.

Recently, I tried to update the U.S. numbers. Sad to say, NSF data cuts off after 2012. Still, those U.S. government numbers list about 1,600 master’s degrees and just under 700 Ph.Ds. in 2012, but the data lump together the field of geology with atmospheric and ocean sciences, which means that we don’t really know how many new, true geologists are coming down the line.

Still, it’s not out of line to make a comparison. In military terms, the U.S. trains geologists by, at best, the platoon- or company-size. The Chinese crank out geologists by the division, if not by the scale of an army.

Indeed, China’s collective army of geologists is comparable in size to the U.S. Marine Corps.

Why Is This Important?

For many decades – let’s use the 1960s as the start – earth science has undergone continuing evolution if not revolution. That is, geology has many sturdy old, traditional elements like sediments, paleontology, hard rock (igneous/metamorphic), structural, mineralogy and such.

Then in the 1960s-70s came the intellectual leap of viewing the earth as a dynamic system, in which processes deep in the mantle and even core drive surface events. Think in terms of plate tectonics, midocean ridges, or vast mountain and volcanic ranges like the globe-circling, Pacific Ocean rimlands called the “Ring of Fire.”

Plus, take these earthly developments into outer space and apply them to planetary science. People write volumes describing scientific upheaval based on stunning advances in earth and beyond due to improved data gathering, storage, analysis and signal processing.

In general, geology is about understanding earth as a system, or more accurately as a system of systems. While anymore the field incorporates entirely new realms, such as interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, solid earth, and near space.

All this, and geoscientists play critical roles in recognizing the extent and magnitude of human impact on the entire earth system. It’s no stretch to say that this immense new scope of earth study has been enhanced via the growth in knowledge of processes on other planets.

The bottom line is that advanced nations require significant numbers of people who understand at least the basics of geology, let alone the hard stuff. The more, the better some might say; and certainly, it’s going to be better for the nation that trains up armies of geoscientists.

Consider energy resources like oil and gas, or indispensable industrial elements like iron, aluminum, copper, nickel and many more. Everything from your iPhone to your car to your microwave oven is made out of metals or other materials. Somewhere and somehow, some geologist had to find the ores and minerals whence all else comes.

It’s also no stretch to say that the future of modernity depends on how well people can locate and develop necessary resources. In other words, societies that want to remain on top in the future had better graduate more than a few geology majors from the academic sweatshops; the more the better.

In 2007 I wrote: “We live in a world in which the Chinese are training the scientific and technical cadre that will go out into the world and, one way or the other, find what their country needs and bring it home. There are armies, and then there are armies of geologists.”

Looking back over 16 years, Mr. Wang’s astonishing numbers about China’s geology programs have played out across the world. Today, you’ll find Chinese geologists on every continent, in almost every nation, looking at every possible energy or mineral play. And their mission is quite well-defined: to locate deposits and arrange to bring energy and mineral value back to China.

On a personal level, I myself have encountered Chinese geologists in my travels, as far afield as Ecuador and Eritrea, South Africa to Brazil, Madagascar to Manitoba, Australia to Alberta. I mean… They. Are. Everywhere.

Also, in 2007 I wrote that: “China’s massive educational effort to train geologists and related scientific personnel for the future indicates a national desire to… adopt the best scientific knowledge of the West. … Because China intends, in its own unique way, to be among the prevailing civilizations of the future.”

Well, yes. That was China’s well-formed, up-and-running plan back in 2007, and it appears that they are still executing on it. Keep it in mind as you enjoy the Easter weekend. And as I said at the beginning, we’ll get back to our own world next week, a world in which priorities are quite different to what we see out of China.

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