Every month, I publish this monthly asset class report not to predict the future, but to show you exactly where we are right now. 

The charts are simple candlesticks, with the 50-day (10-week) and 200-day (40-week) moving averages. At the end, I present a couple of performance charts to illustrate the relative trading positions of traditional asset classes and cryptocurrencies.

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Is it finally silver’s time to shine? After years of market manipulation, false dawns, and paper market shenanigans, the technical picture suggests the grey metal may be ready to break free. And silver’s not the only thing stirring.

Across asset classes, June opens with a curious cocktail: bonds took a hit, equities rallied hard, and Ether—well, Ether rocketed.

The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell all bounced back with vengeance, erasing April’s losses and more.

Meanwhile, long-duration bonds looked like the punchline to a joke no one wanted to hear—TLT fell, investment grade couldn’t reclaim last year’s highs, and high-yield looks tapped out. 

Commodities moved sideways, but crypto stepped into the spotlight, with Ether rocketing nearly 40% in a month and Bitcoin hovering above six figures, as if it owns the place.

In short, we’re watching markets stretch the rubber band again… and silver, if it can break and then hold $35, might just snap it.

Let’s get a closer look at the charts.

The SPX rallied back up to 5,911.69. While that’s good, its new upside target is an eye-watering 7,630. I simply don’t think we’ll get anywhere near there. In fact, I don’t think we’ll get above the 6,147 recent all-time weekly high.

I could be wrong, and if I am, then staying long is prudent. However, after we’ve already turned down before reaching the recent highs, the balance of probabilities says we’re about to start another down leg.

Nasdaq Composite

We didn’t quite hit last month’s target of 20,830, but we got close. Now the target has also moved much - up to 26,284! Like the SPX, I don’t think it’s happening.

And like the SPX chart, we’ve got gaps to close from the big move up. A quick move back to 18,000 looks likely.

Russell 2000 (Small caps)

Similarly to the two major indices, we’ve got a rallying IWM. Again, its target is a nosebleed-inducing 265. And, of course, I don’t buy it. We may have already turned around, and it wouldn’t surprise me to fall from here.

The US 10-Year Yield

Still hanging around 4.40%. If you’re a macro maven, higher yields will hurt the U.S., especially when it comes to rolling over debt. That, in turn, should drive the dollar higher, not lower… unless the world gives up on the dollar. I don’t see that happening just yet.

No target either way right now.

Dollar Index

Nothing has changed, including the price (only about 50 bps).

We’ve got the same downside target of 86.50. Will the dollar follow the 10-year yield, or break away?

That’s the question.

USG Bonds

If rates fly up, the TLT will be kaput. I don’t understand why you’d want to own it.

Our downside target has moved further down to 75.95.

Avoid.

Investment Grade Bonds

We haven’t recovered the all-time high from last August. We now have a downside target of 98.06, which seems sensible to me.

High Yield Bonds

We popped a bit last month, but I’m not sure if there’s much left in the HYG to warrant a position at all. No upside targets from here.

Real Estate

Though we rose a point last month, it’s not enough to turn the ship around. We’re targeting 82.25 first, followed by a move to 76.

Energy: West Texas Intermediate (Oil)

Oil is still weak, but that low number is keeping inflation in check… probably.

After the mini-rally in May, the downside target has moved up to 57.50 from a horrendous 40.72.

I’m still very bearish.

Base Metals: Copper

We just hit a 4.90 downside target. So we’re a bit rangebound. I think we’ll meander down more over this next month.

Precious Metals: Gold

***NEW MONTHLY CLOSING HIGH OF 3,288.58***

We’re coiling here for the next upmove, though we’ve got a downside target of 2,812. We may fall off. But I think the more probable outcome is a rally towards $3,500.

Precious Metals: Silver

Can it be? Can this be it? I dare to believe… the silver rally is about to kick off. We’ve got an upside target of $36.17.

However, I believe that if we surpass $35, to the point where $35 changes its polarity from a resistance level to a support level, we’ll see $50 much sooner than I can imagine.

Strap yourself in!

Cryptos: Bitcoin

Bitcoin exceeded its target of 101,823 to close at a monthly best of 104,986.59. The question is this: “Is this the end of the rally?”

The probability says no. But we’ve got a bearish target of 94,640. So something in the charts is looking for a 10% hit.

Cryptos: Ether

Well, Ether got an injection of something, and quite frankly, I’ll have whatever it’s having. It was up nearly 40% last month.

I’m still not a huge fan, but there’s no denying the trend. The next upside target is 3,556.

Trad Asset Class Summary

Equities recovered all their losses from April, registering a 5.49% gain. Commodities took a breather, up a mere 0.32%. The dollar index was down slightly at -0.88%. The long bond took a hit, dropping -2.53%.

Crypto Class Summary

Ether finally ate its porridge, rallying a blistering 37.68%. Monero, the most secretive coin, had another great month, up nearly 20%. Bitcoin and Dogecoin each increased by over 7%. Ripple and Litecoin were the party poopers, both down over 3%.

Wrap Up

What a month it was. Equities and Ether won May, but June may just be silver’s moment. It’s years in the making. Mr. Slammy has done untold damage to the charts over time. But like Rocky Balboa, silver has risen from the canvas again and again. 

With Ukraine attacking Russia, The Donald negotiating, and an Elonless DOGE not cutting spending, the metals may have a summer to remember.

Finally, let us laugh and not cry, courtesy of the X-verse:

Have a wonderful week ahead!