Posted January 10, 2024
By Sean Ring
Guenthner Walks You Through the Crypto and AI Charts
As Jacob Marley is “as dead as a door-nail” in A Christmas Carol, Greg Guenthner is “not a Bitcoin Maximalist.”
As Dickens wrote, “This must be distinctly understood, or nothing wonderful can come of the story I am going to relate.”
From CoinDesk:
Bitcoin maximalism is a phrase often attributed to Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin who – as a bitcoiner in 2014 – described the emerging belief that the only desirable outcome of this “quiet revolution” is a Bitcoin monopoly. All other coins are at best a distraction and at worst a wrench in the chain.
You must understand that Greg, or “Gunner,” as we call him, is an excellent trader and chartist who’s only interested in good trading opportunities.
He’s not a “true believer” in the cryptocurrency known as Bitcoin. Because that doesn’t matter. What matters is that these trading opportunities are profitable.
I tell you this because I just watched the most glorious video Paradigm Press has thus far put out on its YouTube channels. I write “channels” because we’ve just created another one: Paradigm Profits.
Paradigm Profits will look more at the crypto, AI, tech, and biotech industries. The original Paradigm Press channel will remain dedicated to macro and geopolitics.
So, if you came to Paradigm for Jim Rickards, your channel is “Press,” while the “Profits” channel is available for anyone looking for trading opportunities in spaces Jim doesn’t cover.
With that covered, I wrote yesterday that this year can be the best year of your life for trading and profits. I mean it and believe it with every fiber of my being. And there’s no better way to start doing that than by watching Gunner’s video.
But first, I’ll summarize it for you. Then, I hope it’ll make the video even easier for you to understand.
Let’s begin.
Bitcoin
Today’s a big day for Bitcoin. The SEC may announce that ETFs may be created using Bitcoin as the underlying asset.
According to The Wall Street Journal, “Bitcoin has more than doubled since last January, partly on the expectation that approval would fuel further purchases of digital currencies.”
This is a chart of the daily movement of Bitcoin since October:
Yes, it’s been a furious rally, from $27,000 to nearly $48,000 recently.
But there are two issues: the BTC price is too high for most people. And the second is that the Bitcoin ETF was never approved.
SEC’s X Account Hacked
According to The Wall Street Journal:
The Securities and Exchange Commission’s official X account was hacked when the agency posted late Tuesday that it had approved exchange-traded funds holding bitcoin, forcing Chair Gary Gensler and the regulator to disavow the erroneous post.
Bitcoin briefly jumped to near $48,000 before Gensler said on the social-media network that the message was “unauthorized” and that the SEC “has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.” The agency later posted that its account was “compromised.”
“It’s a hack,” a spokeswoman for the SEC said.
As today is the 10th, the SEC may approve the ETFs after you read this. But we’re unsure, as the denial was so vehement.
Be that as it may, there are other ways to play Bitcoin than buying and selling it.
Bitcoin Miners
The best part of this video is that Gunner goes through the charts.
You get a “look over Gunner’s shoulder” view of how he sees stocks and their movements. It’s an excellent and easy education for anyone unfamiliar with charts.
So, while many will just look at the BTC chart, Gunner looks at the BTC miners.
MARA, RIOT, & CLSK
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT), CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK), and Hut 8 Mining Corp (HUT) are all Bitcoin miners.
But as MARA is the largest and most frequently traded, that’s the one with the cleanest chart right now. Watch the video and see how Gunner compares and contrasts those charts. It’s an education in and of itself.
Notice how we got a rocket of a move - even more so than Bitcoin’s own move - during the past rally.
AI Stocks
After giving that great review of BTC and BTC mining stocks, Gunner turned his attention to AI. This is still a huge story.
If you didn’t buy MSFT in the 90s, AAPL in the 00s, or AMZN in the 10s, don’t miss out on AI stocks this decade.
NVDA
While Gunner initially thought NVDA couldn’t repeat its 2023 performance, the last two days have tested that idea.
We’ve had a clean breakout at $500, and are now 6% above that level. It could be “Up, up, and away!” again for this stock.
AI
Tickers are sticky. C3.ai (AI) sure picked a good ticker, then. Right now, the chart’s a mess. But that can change anytime.
SMCI
This stock could be the next NVDA.
We’ve had a big breakout above $320. Let’s see if it’ll chase NVDA, the sector leader.
AMD and ANET
Both these stocks had big sell-offs and quick recoveries.
PLTR
Now, this is my stock pick for 2024. I based this on the “Cantillon Effect.”
The Cantillon Effect is the concept of relative inflation or a disproportionate price rise among different goods in an economy.
That is, if the government invests heavily in one area, that area’s prices will rise.
From an earlier Rude:
Richard Mayberry concentrates more on the fiscal side, but the results are the same.
Mayberry notes that analysts and economists wrongly assume that the new money printed and the fiscal deficit spending are evenly distributed throughout the land.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Instead, money is injected into specific locations, which he calls “cones.”
Mayberry writes, "The best way to invest is to look where the government is putting money and invest there."
To use his euphemism, they essentially “pour” the money into a city, a geographical area, or an industry.
Because of the government largesse - just redistributed taxpayer funds - the stocks representing the companies receiving the subsidies, tax breaks, or straight investment will go up.
That was his entire theory in a nutshell, and it's exquisite.
The government will pour tons of money into these spying programs, and PLTR will be a huge beneficiary.
But that hasn’t materialized yet.
Zooming out, this is PLTR’s chart:
We had a great pop to $14, and then to $20. But as Gunner says in the video, PLTR is in a “sloppy, wide-ranging consolidation pattern.”
The stock is fine if it doesn’t fall below $14. But he’d wait for another entry point rather than here.
Wrap Up
Once you put your coffee down, head over to YouTube and watch this video. It’s the best free education you can get on charting.
I love how Gunner makes it easy to follow him and his thinking. It’ll surely increase your expertise in deciphering stock charts.
Good hunting!