Posted October 20, 2020
By Scott Stewart
Downtrend in a Bull Market
The Three Candle Trick
When looking for trends, we usually want to see three candles in a row to indicate either an upward or downward trajectory.We have been in a downtrend lately, with more than three red candlesticks in the past week or so of trading days.Downtrends in a bull market (which, I remind you, we still are in!!) are almost always news-driven.The news today is basically two-fold: covid and anything related to it, and the Fed.Those two news items have been supplemented this week with questions surrounding a new stimulus package.Treasury Secretary Mnuchen and Speaker Pelosi came out yesterday talking about this. And today might be a pivotal day in the marketplace, due to news items.The question is, does Nancy Pelosi want a stimulus bill to pass before the election?With Biden holding a long pattern of favored polling data, the thought would be that his passing this new bill at the start of his presidency would make for a great first week a good thing for the Democrats.So, where do we go from here?Today should add some clarity. There is supposed to be an announcement this afternoon.A Market in Vacillation
We are giving back some of the futures gains todayWere looking to see if today will follow the same pattern as Friday and Monday: a morning pop, followed by an afternoon selloff.But, no matter what happens in the market, traders can trade!With that being said, we want to look for stocks that are following the same overall market trends, to rip profits based on this vacillation through implied volatility (I.V.)...The stock to focus on today is Netflix (NFLX).With their earnings announcement coming up this evening, this stock has MASSIVE I.V.If you remember, when the options on a stock hit 50% I.V. it means theyre ripe for profit-taking.NFLX is currently seeing levels above 100%...In the Rude Awakening Pro, we set up a high POP trade on Netflix for 11% gains in just 3 days, which amounts to a whopping 1,338% annualized rate of return.Its a trade that stands to make money whether the stock falls further, middles out, or even goes up somewhat.We did this using options.If you want to learn more about our Pro level trades, you will be able to sign up for our Rude Awakening Pro service very soonBut thats it for today!Have a great rest of your trading day, folks.Well talk again tomorrowRegards,
Scott StewartEditor, Rude Awakening
For Whom the Debt Tolls
Posted October 01, 2026
By Sean Ring
Washington has spent years ordering the lobster and telling everyone the bill was manageable. In September, the waiter finally arrived. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.29%, small companies, landlords, and supposedly safe bond portfolios discovered whose credit card was on the table.
Spend It Like You Stole It
Posted September 30, 2026
By Sean Ring
The Swamp’s year ends tonight. Yours could get interesting depending on where the money lands.
The Pentagon’s Velvet Rope
Posted September 29, 2026
By Sean Ring
Every good nightclub has two things: people with money and a bouncer deciding who gets in. The Pentagon has an enormous amount of the first. Congress has been working on the second. And a handful of mining and manufacturing companies could find themselves inside a very profitable party.
From Athens with Contempt
Posted September 28, 2026
By Sean Ring
America spent decades convincing other countries that its friendship was worth having. Then its ambassador to Greece allegedly explained, over dinner, that their governments were replaceable. Beijing couldn’t have written a better sales pitch. And it didn’t even have to pick up the check.
The Lost Round Trip
Posted September 25, 2026
By Sean Ring
In 1884, a dollar bought roughly what it had bought before the Civil War. Try imagining that today: twenty years after a 75% inflationary surge, the price level had retraced the entire move. America once had inflation that went away.
The Hunt for Red November
Posted September 24, 2026
By Sean Ring
The most dangerous voter in American politics this November may be the Republican who does absolutely nothing. He doesn’t have to switch parties. He doesn’t have to put a Mamdani sign on his lawn, discover a sudden enthusiasm for socialism, or start watching MSNBC. He merely has to stay home. And the first bits of election data suggest quite a few of them may be thinking about doing exactly that.