Happy Thursday!

I’m looking forward to the weekend, myself.

But before we start with sherry and giggles, let’s finish the week strongly.

Today, I’m going to ask more questions than give answers.

Because there’s so much going on right now, I’m unsure how all the moving parts fit together.

Before I get into it, let me acknowledge the Doom Porn Demographers like Peter Zeihan, who think China will fall into an abyss and not be America’s problem anymore.

The problem with this thesis is that most of the world’s advanced economies are losing population quickly, not just China.

Besides China, western Europe, Japan, and the rest of developed Southeast Asia are also falling quickly.

So net-net, China’s population issues aren’t going to give the West an easy win.

Three big things happening right now preclude the possibility of the West knocking China out.

The De-Dollarization of Asia

Two days ago, I listed many de-dollarization examples in the Rude.

The funny thing is we knew this was going to happen. But we thought it’d happen over 10-20 years or more.

But because of those asinine Russia sanctions, the process has been sped up beyond anything I could’ve imagined.

Remember, the rest of the world is still trading with Russia.

But Russia can’t accept dollars, thanks to Brainy Biden.

So those countries are also dumping dollars to be able to trade with Russia, which has all sorts of natural resources everyone needs.

This is what got Fareed Zakaria sitting up, and Fox News scared.

Now ask yourself: if the US can’t print up dollars at will because the demand isn’t there, how will it finance a massive military build-up?

With that in mind, I’m not sure we’ll even get to war over Taiwan.

Taiwan

The finances of war depend on American credit.

That’s why America could enter and dominate the World Wars.

But even with that in mind…

…I’ve never understood how the US will maintain a 7,000-mile supply line against an enemy who only has to go 100 miles over a strait.

America’s famous lack of cartography skills hit them in the goolies here.

China can launch an attack from its mainland and bury Taiwan. It’d be like America launching a full frontal assault on Cuba.

If they wanted to, it’d be over in the blink of an eye.

For the Pacific Fleet and its obsolete aircraft carriers, I think it’s a lost cause. And that’s before any shots are fired.

Taiwan and the Mainland will probably cut a deal in the next few years to reunite peacefully, all on their own.

And there’s nothing Washington can do about it.

Tik-Tok Bill

Let’s get one thing straight: the US version of Tik Tok is a cesspool of an app into which all the dregs of society circle and, eventually, drain.

The Chinese version of Tik Tok posts far more educational content.

It’s awful, and it’s nowhere near the Ring household.

But just because I think something is awful doesn’t mean it should be banned.

With Tik Tok beating the pants off native US apps, the USG feels the need to get involved.

And with this, Senator Mark Warner introduced the RESTRICT Act of 2023, essentially the Patriot Act in disguise.

Here’s a brief explanation of it:

The Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology Act of 2023 (RESTRICT) Act is a proposed bill in the United States Congress.

It grants the Secretary of Commerce the authority to "identify, deter, disrupt, prevent, prohibit, investigate, or otherwise mitigate" risks to national security posed by the business transactions of entities who offer "information and communications technologies products or services" (ICTS) in the United States.

The Act applies to ICTS entities that are held in whole or in part by, or otherwise fall under the jurisdiction of a country or government that is designated under the Act as a "foreign adversary" of the United States, and has more than one million active users or units sold in the United States.

The initial text of the Act classifies China (including Hong Kong and Macau), Cuba, Iran, Russia, and the Nicolás Maduro regime of Venezuela as foreign adversaries.

It would be unlawful for any person to violate any order or mitigation measure issued under the RESTRICT Act, with civil penalties of up to $250,000 or "twice the value of the transaction that is the basis of the violation with respect to which the penalty is imposed," whichever is greater.

You can read the whole bill here.

The upshot is that while pretending to protect Americans from Tik Tok, it puts unprecedented power over internet communications into government hands.

The bill is purposely ambiguous. For instance, it’s unclear if VPNs would be banned.

VPN stands for Virtual Private Network, a technology that allows you to create a secure and private connection between your device and the internet. A VPN works by routing your internet traffic through an encrypted tunnel, which hides your IP address and protects your online activity from prying eyes.

So it’s unclear if you’d be prosecuted for using a VPN to access a government-banned website.

Senator Rand Paul opposes the Act, so the Act is undoubtedly awful.

The Mises Caucus tweeted:

The RESTRICT Act is not limited to just TikTok. It gives the government authority over all forms of communication domestic or abroad and grants powers to “enforce any mitigation measure to address any risk” to national security now and in any “potential future transaction”

Credit: @EndWokeness

Credit: @YALiberty

It’s incredible how many people oppose bills once they read them, Nancy.

Wrap Up

America has a lot of catching up to do.

It needs to slow de-dollarization before losing the “exorbitant privilege” of printing dollars for free.

It needs to rethink its Taiwan strategy in the face of a resurgent and much closer China.

And it needs to rethink bans on apps that would surely die on their own.

Until tomorrow!