In Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, Alan Rickman’s Sheriff of Nottingham can’t understand why raising the bounty on Robin Hood’s head won’t increase the likelihood of his capture.

Sheriff of Nottingham: Wait a minute. Robin Hood steals money from my pocket, forcing me to hurt the public, and they love him for it?

[Scribe nods.]

Sheriff of Nottingham: That's it then. Cancel the kitchen scraps for lepers and orphans, no more merciful beheadings, and call off Christmas!

When he’s lucid enough, I imagine Joke Biden feels the same about Donald Trump.

Let’s face it: Biden and his Democrat followers have thrown everything at Trump in his home city to get a guilty verdict. And now, they almost wish they hadn’t.

Regrettably for them, the metaphorical weapon they hurled at him was a colossal boomerang, a symbol of their own misjudgment and unintended consequences.

A guilty verdict looks like it’ll help Trump, not hurt him.

Rabobank’s Michael Every wrote this (courtesy of Zero Hedge):

We can also expect imminent market headlines from the Trump trial in New York, where the jury is still out. In every trial, there are always two opinions: the prosecution and the defense. In this trial, there are three: anti-Trump, pro-Trump, and anti-Trump, but concerned about the rule of law.

Alan Dershowitz, a Democrat, has been withering in his criticism of how this trial has been prosecuted. Legal expert Jonathan Turley notes it “has seemed otherworldly, a vaguely familiar proceeding where common elements of a trial seem to have been flipped,” listing the numerous ways normal practice has not been followed - which those pro-Trump naturally allege have occurred for nefarious political purposes. Given how the judge --‘The Merchant of Vengeance’-- instructed the jury, experts think the most likely outcomes are a hung jury or a conviction.

If it’s the former, Trump will gain huge publicity, and cry he was wronged by Democrat ‘lawfare’; and if he’s convicted, that is arguably even more the case (even if the latter will prompt a rapid appeal, potentially all the way up to the Supreme Court, which many observers think will then see the verdict overturned). To presume, as White House strategists must do(?) that being able to call Trump a “convicted felon” on TV will necessarily dent his electoral prospects rather than boost them may be to totally misread the current situation, as in 2016.

Why is this the case? After all, aren’t Americans opposed to electing a man who’s been put in The Clink?

It seems not, and here are a few reasons why.

Base Mobilization

Trump's core supporters often view him as a champion against the Deep State.

When Trump is seen as under attack, it reinforces the belief that he’s a disruptive force challenging the establishment. This persecution invigorates his supporters, increasing activism, voter turnout, and engagement.

The trial narratives of being unfairly targeted by political opponents create a rally-around-the-flag effect, where his supporters feel more united and committed to defending him.

Media Attention

Media coverage is crucial in politics, and the extensive reporting on Trump’s legal battles keeps him in the public eye.

This constant coverage helps maintain his relevance in the political landscape. Even negative publicity benefits him by keeping him at the center of political discourse.

The trial inadvertently ensured his name remains prominent, which is advantageous in crowded primary fields where name recognition is a critical factor. In fact, he had no real primary rival. Even Nikki Haley said she’ll vote for Trump.

The adage "there's no such thing as bad publicity" often holds in politics, and Trump has historically been a master at using media attention to his advantage.

Martyrdom Effect

Many voters are drawn to narratives of struggle and victimization, especially when going without because of inflation.

Trump's portrayal as a martyr fighting against an unjust system resonates deeply with many voters, especially those who feel the pinch of inflation. This effect is particularly potent among voters who are disillusioned or disenfranchised by the current political and economic system, fostering a sense of empathy and understanding.

They see Trump as someone willing to take on powerful interests on their behalf, and his legal troubles are perceived as a testament to his commitment to challenging the establishment.

This narrative has swayed undecided voters who resonate with the idea of fighting back against perceived injustices.

Fundraising and Support

Trump's campaign is strategically leveraging the trial to solicit donations, framing the legal issues as attacks not just on Trump, but on his supporters and their values. This strategic approach empowers his supporters, making them feel crucial in combating political persecution. 

This has led to significant financial contributions from small donors who are motivated by the belief that their support is crucial in combating political persecution.

The urgency of the trial has led to more frequent and significant donations, bolstering campaign activities and outreach efforts.

Polarization

In a polarized political environment, energizing the base is more crucial than appealing to the middle. 

Trump’s legal troubles deepen the existing divides, reinforcing the us-versus-them mentality. This polarization ensures his supporters, who have shown remarkable resilience, remain fiercely loyal and motivated to turn out in large numbers.

While this alienates some moderate and independent voters, the strategy is to secure a solid and highly motivated base to outvote a fragmented opposition.

Polarization also discourages defections within his party, as Republican voters may rally around Trump to avoid perceived external threats.

Distrust of Institutions

There is a growing distrust of institutions such as the media, judiciary, and government among a significant portion of the electorate.

By positioning himself as an opponent of these institutions, Trump taps into the sentiments of voters who think these entities are corrupt or biased.

This distrust is particularly prevalent among populist, anti-establishment, and blue collar segments of the population. 

Trump's claim that he’s being unfairly targeted by these institutions aligns with the views of voters who believe that the system is rigged against them, further solidifying their support for him as a candidate who represents their grievances.

Wrap Up

These dynamics collectively create a scenario where Trump’s legal troubles, rather than weakening his political position, strengthen his appeal to certain voter segments.

This is enhancing his prospects in the upcoming presidential race.

Biden’s boomerang was a poor weapon of choice.

Have a great weekend!