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The Selloff That Might Save America

Posted April 07, 2025

Sean Ring

By Sean Ring

The Selloff That Might Save America

The important question Americans asked themselves last November at the ballot box was, “Do I want to live where gated communities are side-by-side with slums, or do I want to live in a country where everyone at least has a shot to succeed?”

If you were happy with the former, you voted for Kamala. If you wanted the latter, you voted for The Donald.

The last three trading days (including this morning’s Asian and European sessions) have made grown men cry. I’m with Steve Bannon, who asked, “Where are all the Republicans right now?”

Make no mistake, dear reader, this moment will separate those who merely wanted Trump to win to goose the stock market and those who wanted Trump to crash this corrupt system and rebuild one in which America’s Forgotten Men and Women can succeed again.

Though I no longer vote in America, count me in the second camp.

If you’re retired, or on the cusp of retirement, I understand how crippling it can be to watch your portfolio take the hit it’s taken over the last few days. Like deer in headlights, you just freeze, wondering, “Should I have sold?” “Should I just hang in there and pray it gets better?”

It may not feel like it now, but this kind of butt-clenching stress will ultimately make you a better investor.

Since misery loves company, I can tell you my miners’ portfolio has been utterly decimated. However, I didn’t make the mistake of panic selling like I did when the Fed cut 50 basis points last autumn. I’m hanging in there because I believe gold and silver will be the first to rebound from this downturn… and there’s evidence this is already happening. I will show you, I promise.

But first, my friend and colleague Enrique Abeyta wrote a fantastic primer on how to navigate this stress. I’ll quote part of it to you now:

President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs last night. Trade war, global slowdown, political chaos — take your pick.

The reason doesn’t matter. What matters is what happens next.

Because in moments like this, your brain doesn’t process numbers. It processes threats. You don’t feel like a rational investor; you feel like prey. That’s biology.

And that’s why people make the worst decisions in the middle of a sell-off.

But here’s what three decades in the markets has taught me: Every panic feels different, but they all act the same.

Whether it was COVID, the financial crisis, or the dot-com crash, we’ve seen this movie before. And we know exactly what to watch for.

Every major BEAR market of the last 30 years — the 2022 post-COVID hangover, the 2020 COVID period, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, and the Internet Bubble of 2000/01 — saw major snapback rallies happen.

So strap on your gloves and tighten those laces.

It’s time to counter-punch your way through this selloff because the next snapback rally is setting up right now.

Enrique gives you four indicators to watch for in selloffs. Just click the link above to read it. But first, let me reiterate The Donald’s plan.

First, The Plan

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant are disrupting the stock market because they need capital to flow into the bond markets.

Why do they need capital to flow into the bond markets?

Because former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen didn’t refinance short-term U.S. debt into long-term U.S. debt when rates were near zero. That left the second Trump Administration to refinance over $7 trillion this year.

pub Credit: GoldBroker

But rolling $7 trillion into ten-year notes at the then-current 4% yield would add $280 billion in interest payments to the national deficit each year for the next ten years. Issuing the debt at 3% would add only $210 billion, a savings of $70 billion each year.

So why can’t the Treasury just issue the bonds at 3%?

When the government issues debt at auction, it does so roughly at the prevailing yield at the time of auction. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship (one goes up as the other goes down), so Trump needs to induce people to buy bonds to bring yields down.

How do they get people to buy bonds?

By creating a “flight to quality.”

What’s a “flight to quality?”

When stock market investors get spooked, they sell their equities to buy bonds. This capital flows into the bond market from the stock market. As investors buy bonds, prices go up and yields go down. The current 10-year yield is 3.96%, so we have a way to go.

In short, there’s a reason for this happening. But did Trump want such a big sell-off in equities? Probably not.

What do tariffs have to do with all this?

There are two big reasons for tariffs. As President Trump says, the first is to “level the playing field” and collect revenue when tariffs are imposed. He hopes this will lessen the deficit over time.

The second reason was to spook the equity markets, getting that equity capital to flow into the Treasury bond market in a flight to quality. In short, he kicked off his plan with tariffs.

Second, The First Returns

In a word, the stock markets have seen carnage.

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The red box in the middle shows the SPX, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq Composite since the day the tariffs were announced. (The markets started falling off before the 4 p.m. announcement.)

For comparison, let’s look at the SPX versus commodities:

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Gold held up relatively well. But silver, copper, and oil were also down double digits.

And my miners:

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No, this hasn’t felt good at all. I haven’t sold a single share and don’t plan to. I think we’ll see some stunning gains once the market has had its fill.

However, there’s the worst-case scenario. We must at least talk about it.

Third, The Worst Case Scenario

For a while, investors like Northstar Charts have been discussing a “capital rotation event.” This event involves investors rotating out of tech stocks and the like and into precious metals and commodities. Again, I think mining stocks will do well out of this, and that’s why I’m happy to take some lumps now, no matter how awful it feels.

If this is the case, Trump may (or may not) regret taking a hammer to the markets. He may have set off a decades-long rotation. That means the SPX and Nasdaq won’t return to their highs for a long time.

If you’re already in gold and silver, you’ll be fine. If you’re in miners, you’ll be fine.

If you think crypto will save you, it doesn’t look that way.

This capital rotation event is very bearish for Bitcoin. Bitcoin looks more like a tech stock than a currency or safe haven. It doesn’t matter why… it just matters how it acts.

Finally, This Morning

This morning, the world equity indexes have been crushed again:

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The U.S. equity futures market is down again, but not as hard:

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Crypto has been hammered:

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With BTC under $78,000, Michael Saylor’s firm Strategy (MSTR) will open down about 8%.

But on a happy note, silver and gold have recovered nicely. I told you I’d show you we may already be getting out of this! Copper (HG) and Crude Oil (CL) have relatively held their own.

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Let’s see if this will continue throughout the day.

Wrap Up

These past few days have been a rather traumatic investor experience. But we’re here with you. Again, if you’re in gold and silver, the worst may have passed. If you’re in tech stocks or crypto, this may continue for a long while.

Depending on your investments, we may not dive another day.

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