If the Federal Reserve were a dinner guest, Jerome Powell would be the one who scoffs down a caramel-covered panna cotta, then immediately says, “I shouldn’t have.”

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting gave markets exactly what they expected—a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate range to 3.75–4.00%.

But before investors could pop the champagne, Powell turned up at the press conference to say: “Don’t count on another one in December.”

Translation: Powell wants credit for easing, but doesn’t want to sound easy.

This is classic Powell — cut, but sound tough; appease markets, but warn them not to get too excited. It’s like giving your teenager the car keys, but only to go to church.

The Real Headline: QT Is Dead

The more consequential news wasn’t the quarter-point trim. It was the end of quantitative tightening (QT).

Starting December 1, the Fed stops shrinking its balance sheet — meaning the great experiment in draining liquidity is officially over. The Fed will resume “normal” reinvestments, which is bureaucratic code for “we’re done pretending to fight inflation through the back door.”

QT was always the Fed’s version of fasting — good in theory, but impossible in practice. Liquidity-starved markets simply couldn’t handle the calorie deficit.

Powell’s Press Conference: The Art of Saying Nothing Confidently

Powell’s performance yesterday was peak Powell.

He said:

• Inflation is still above target,
  
  
• Employment is slowing,
  
  
• Government data are missing because of the October shutdown.
  
  
• And the Fed remains “data dependent” — though the data itself is unreliable.

So, to summarize: “We’ll make our next decision based on numbers we don’t have.”

When pressed about December, Powell said another cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” That’s central banker speak for, “We’ll see how the Dow’s doing in a few weeks.”

It reminds me of that old SportsCenter gag that Dan Patrick used to trot out: “He’s listed as day to day. Aren’t we all…”

Market Reaction: The Powell Whipsaw

Markets did what they always do when Powell opens his mouth — they celebrated, then calmed down, then panicked.

Stocks rallied after the cut, then reversed when Powell cooled the idea of a December follow-up. The Dow closed lower, while the Nasdaq barely held on.

Bond yields ticked up slightly — not because traders are suddenly hawkish, but because they’re confused.

The dollar strengthened modestly, suggesting the market’s still not convinced Powell is ready to go full dove.

For all the noise, this was a “do less, talk more” meeting — the monetary equivalent of a PTA meeting.

Meanwhile, in the Mines…

The real world of gold and silver miners had no time for Powell’s philosophical waffling. They were busy reporting results.

Agnico Eagle (AEM), one of the gold sector’s heavyweights, came out swinging.

• EPS jumped as all-in sustaining costs are below $1,400 per ounce.
  
  
• Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, even with higher energy and labor costs. Translation: Agnico continues to print money at $4,000 gold.
  
  
• Though AEM was off a cent yesterday, it’s up over 2% in premarket trading this morning.

Coeur Mining (CDE) also posted solid results — a nice change of pace after years of underperformance.

• Coeur missed estimates by 2 cents, as analysts expected 25 cents per share; CDE came in at 23 cents.
  
  
• Still, this is nearly double last year’s 12 cents per share.
  
  
• Shares fell 3 cents amid cautious trading, and yet this morning they’re up 1%.

Together, these reports underline what we’ve been saying all year: miners are finally catching up to the metal. Even with CDE’s miss, earnings are improving, balance sheets are cleaner, and the next leg up could be spectacular — especially if Powell’s “maybe, maybe not” rate stance turns into another easing cycle in 2026.

Earlier this week, my friend and colleague Greg Guenthner told me:

Huge bull moves like these tend to punish the late buyers. But you shouldn’t be too worried if your cost basis is below these levels. Miners are still in a relatively new long-term uptrend. It will take time to bleed off some of the excess enthusiasm – maybe several more weeks or even months. But I don’t think the longer-term rally is finished just yet.

Even as gold was breaking out above $2,000 in January 2024, we didn’t see the miners join the party until Q1 of this year. In my mind, that means we’re still early in the game.

I’m not buying the miners here, but I do think they will reset at some point and begin to rally again over the next several months, as long as the precious metals trade holds up. Momentum resets are a part of the deal, especially when long-dormant trades like these undergo a major change in trend.

Wrap Up

Let’s cut through the polite jargon:

The Fed has ended QT because it had to. The Treasury needs buyers, and the private market isn’t enough. By cutting rates and stopping balance sheet runoff, Powell just turned the liquidity spigot back on — but doesn’t want to admit it.

In other words, monetary tightening is officially over, even if Powell won’t say so out loud.

That’s bullish for gold, bullish for miners, and bearish for anyone who still believes the Fed is fighting inflation.

The man who once vowed to be Paul Volcker just turned back into Ben Bernanke with better hair.

Powell cuts rates, kills QT, and warns he might not cut again. Markets wobble. Miners rally. And the Fed’s “data-dependent” approach now depends on data that don’t exist.