The New York Post headline read, “Democratic dynasty heir RFK Jr. endorses Republican Trump.”

But let’s face it: on any other timeline, Donald Trump is a Kennedy Democrat, and RFK Jr. would still be American royalty.

Trump was right when he said, “Gone forever is the old Democratic Party of FDR, JFK … even Bill Clinton.” But it’s not only the Democrat party that shifted to the left with their woke ideology, DEI, and CRT components.

He doesn’t mention that the Republicans, too, have shifted left.

This is no longer the party of small government and smaller taxes. It’s the party of “patriotic spending is fine by us, no matter what happens with the deficit or national debt.” That’s why defense spending has boomed since 2001.

Ironically, as RFK Jr. pulls the disaffected Democrats to the right and Trump pulls Republicans left with dreams of inflation-induced riches, can Trump and RFK Jr. become the most remarkable centrist alliance since Bill Clinton hired William Cohen to be his Secretary of Defence?

You Have My Permission to be Optimistic

I’ll admit it: I was scared for more than a second. Kamala’s goodwill bounce was more than I thought it’d be. And that bounce clearly agitated Trump. He looked sloppy and flustered. And honestly, I don’t blame him. She has no policies to target, so he got personal. And it hurt him for a few weeks.

But with RFK Jr. coming on board, it’s a different story. It doesn’t matter if you don’t agree with everything RFK Jr. says or believes. What’s important about him is that he’s happy to defy his wife and siblings and his admittedly diminished status as Democrat royalty. He already took on Fauci and wants to beat up Big Pharma. And, goodness gracious, he endorsed a Republican to thunderous applause. His endorsement could potentially influence Trump's policies, particularly in the areas of public health and pharmaceutical regulation.

Now, Trump has the guns to “beat the cheat.” That means he could make the electoral map look like Reagan-Mondale in 1984. And this may sound like lunacy, but if you remember, Kamala came in third in the Democrat primaries in California, her home state, in 2020. It forced her out of the election before Biden scooped her up. Could Trump and RFK Jr. flip California? It’s not beyond the realm of possibility.

What Role Will RFK Jr. Play in a Trump Administration?

RFK Jr. would’ve asked for a job in the Trump Administration in return for his endorsement. And Trump would only be too happy to oblige. Here are a few possible jobs for RFK Jr.:

Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary

Given RFK Jr.'s outspoken views on vaccines and public health, he most likely would be considered for a position related to health policy. While his views are unorthodox, Trump has previously entertained non-mainstream perspectives (thank heavens). If RFK Jr. were appointed as HHS Secretary, his focus might shift toward issues related to medical freedom, vaccine safety, and alternative health approaches.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator

RFK Jr. has a long history as an environmental lawyer and advocate. Despite his controversial views on specific topics, his ecological credentials are well-established. He could be considered for a role at the EPA, focusing on water quality, pollution, and natural resource conservation, aligning with some of his more traditional environmental stances.

Director of National Intelligence (DNI)

The Director of National Intelligence oversees the entire U.S. Intelligence Community, coordinating efforts among the various intelligence agencies (such as the CIA, NSA, FBI, and others) to provide comprehensive intelligence to the President and policymakers.

Though it would be poetic justice for a Kennedy to hold this position, RFK Jr. doesn’t have a traditional background in intelligence, national security, or military service. His expertise aligns more with environmental law, public health advocacy, and legal matters.

RFK Jr.'s lack of experience in intelligence or defense would be a significant hurdle. The intelligence community traditionally values experience in these areas if only to know that “one of their own” is leading them.

United States Attorney General (USAG)

Could he possibly take his Dad’s old job? Probably not.

RFK Jr.’s background is in environmental law. He has been involved in various legal and advocacy roles throughout his career. While he has experience as an attorney, he focuses on environmental issues and activism rather than traditional criminal law or the types of cases typically handled by the Department of Justice. The role of the Attorney General requires a deep understanding of federal law, criminal law, and the inner workings of the Department of Justice. RFK Jr.'s lack of direct experience in these areas makes his potential nomination contentious.

The toughest thing about having a Kennedy in your government is keeping him safe.

Market History: 2016-2017

Now that I’m assuming Trump wins with RFK Jr. getting a cabinet-level position, let’s look at the last time The Donald won.

I’m only using August 26, 2016, to January 20, 2017, to see what happened before the election up to the inauguration date of January 20, 2017.

The S&P 500

Hilariously – to me, at least – is that the market was tanking in anticipation of a Hildebeast victory.

Market History: 2016-2017

Now that I’m assuming Trump wins with RFK Jr. getting a cabinet-level position, let’s look at the last time The Donald won.

I’m only using August 26, 2016, to January 20, 2017, to see what happened before the election up to the inauguration date of January 20, 2017.

The S&P 500

Hilariously – to me, at least – is that the market was tanking in anticipation of a Hildebeast victory.

The day before the election, the market rocketed 2.22%, perhaps knowing Trump would pull it off. On Election Day, it was up again. Once Trump was confirmed as election victor, the market was up another 1.11%. And then, we were off to the races.

I reckon the sooner Trump looks like he’s winning for good, the smoother the sailing will be.

Russell 2000

The Russell Rally was even steeper than the majors’ rally.

The Russell rally nearly 20% from the election to the inauguration. That bodes well for the Russell this time around.

Gold

From the peak just prior to the election to the trough before inauguration day, gold fell 14%. It then recovered.

Then, it recovered roughly 50% of its losses going into the inauguration. If The Donald wins again, we could see severe turbulence in the gold market.

After all, if investors think the stock market will rocket, they won’t want to hold a non-dividend-producing asset at that moment. But I’m still convinced that gold’s long-term trend is up. Way up… to $3,000… at least.

The big difference this time is that Trump will have Biden’s ridiculous budget busters, the Inflation Reduction Act and Build Back Better, at his disposal. That’s right, the cash is all his, and since Congress already voted in favor of them—to its everlasting shame—Trump doesn’t have to ask permission to use those funds.

Will he blow out the national debt further… or will he repeal them and save the money? Honestly, I can’t see him doing that. Trump will spend. And that will keep gold elevated later on.

Wrap Up

The good news is that RFK Jr. is in Trump’s camp. The better news is that Trump will almost certainly carry the day in November. The best news is that this is very bullish for the stock market.

I just checked the charts, and nothing in them screams, “Sell now!” In fact, it gives the opposite message.

The Monthly Asset Class Report will be out next Monday. It's doubtful that things will change between now and then.

Have a wonderful week ahead.